Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency medium-range forecasts for Tokyo's April 3 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering implied probabilities around 18-21°C amid a warmer-than-average 2026 spring driven by positive temperature anomalies and reduced cold surges. Recent March 26 Japan Weather Association cherry blossom updates confirm accelerated sakura blooming from sustained above-normal warmth, favoring 19°C (28.5%) over 21°C or higher (25.5%), but differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and passing fronts that could cap highs at 17-18°C or boost them under clear skies and southerly winds. Daily JMA updates through April 1 will clarify steering patterns and refine probabilities before resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
19°C 29%
18°C 22%
21°C or higher 21%
17°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
14%
13°C
13%
14°C
12%
15°C
17%
16°C
11%
17°C
20%
18°C
22%
19°C
29%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
21%
19°C 29%
18°C 22%
21°C or higher 21%
17°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
11°C or below
$234 交易量
1%
12°C
$0 交易量
14%
13°C
$0 交易量
13%
14°C
$0 交易量
12%
15°C
$0 交易量
17%
16°C
$0 交易量
11%
17°C
$0 交易量
20%
18°C
$0 交易量
22%
19°C
$0 交易量
29%
20°C
$0 交易量
18%
21°C or higher
$0 交易量
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency medium-range forecasts for Tokyo's April 3 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering implied probabilities around 18-21°C amid a warmer-than-average 2026 spring driven by positive temperature anomalies and reduced cold surges. Recent March 26 Japan Weather Association cherry blossom updates confirm accelerated sakura blooming from sustained above-normal warmth, favoring 19°C (28.5%) over 21°C or higher (25.5%), but differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and passing fronts that could cap highs at 17-18°C or boost them under clear skies and southerly winds. Daily JMA updates through April 1 will clarify steering patterns and refine probabilities before resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$234结束日期
Apr 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency medium-range forecasts for Tokyo's April 3 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering implied probabilities around 18-21°C amid a warmer-than-average 2026 spring driven by positive temperature anomalies and reduced cold surges. Recent March 26 Japan Weather Association cherry blossom updates confirm accelerated sakura blooming from sustained above-normal warmth, favoring 19°C (28.5%) over 21°C or higher (25.5%), but differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and passing fronts that could cap highs at 17-18°C or boost them under clear skies and southerly winds. Daily JMA updates through April 1 will clarify steering patterns and refine probabilities before resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$234结束日期
Apr 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency medium-range forecasts for Tokyo's April 3 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering implied probabilities around 18-21°C amid a warmer-than-average 2026 spring driven by positive temperature anomalies and reduced cold surges. Recent March 26 Japan Weather Association cherry blossom updates confirm accelerated sakura blooming from sustained above-normal warmth, favoring 19°C (28.5%) over 21°C or higher (25.5%), but differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and passing fronts that could cap highs at 17-18°C or boost them under clear skies and southerly winds. Daily JMA updates through April 1 will clarify steering patterns and refine probabilities before resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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