Market icon

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 30?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 30?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

19°C 45%

18°C 22%

20°C 22%

21°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

$42,871 交易量

19°C 45%

18°C 22%

20°C 22%

21°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

$42,871 交易量

15°C

$9,462 交易量

<1%

16°C

$5,627 交易量

1%

17°C

$4,120 交易量

4%

18°C

$1,679 交易量

22%

19°C

$1,716 交易量

45%

20°C

$2,710 交易量

22%

21°C

$1,553 交易量

9%

22°C or higher

$1,636 交易量

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 19°C as Tokyo's highest temperature today at 50.5% implied probability, closely tracking the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) March 29 evening forecast projecting a 19°C peak under cloudy skies with low precipitation risk (10-20%). This positioning reflects persistent cloud cover limiting solar insolation despite a warm air mass sustaining above-seasonal averages—late March normals hover around 17°C—after yesterday's observed 21°C high. Nearby outcomes like 18°C (22.5%) and 20°C (19.5%) capture model ensemble uncertainty, with partly clearing skies potentially allowing brief spikes. JMA hourly AMEDAS observations through afternoon will refine peak heating trajectories ahead of market resolution based on official Tokyo station data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 19°C as Tokyo's highest temperature today at 50.5% implied probability, closely tracking the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) March 29 evening forecast projecting a 19°C peak under cloudy skies with low precipitation risk (10-20%). This positioning reflects persistent cloud cover limiting solar insolation despite a warm air mass sustaining above-seasonal averages—late March normals hover around 17°C—after yesterday's observed 21°C high. Nearby outcomes like 18°C (22.5%) and 20°C (19.5%) capture model ensemble uncertainty, with partly clearing skies potentially allowing brief spikes. JMA hourly AMEDAS observations through afternoon will refine peak heating trajectories ahead of market resolution based on official Tokyo station data.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 19°C as Tokyo's highest temperature today at 50.5% implied probability, closely tracking the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) March 29 evening forecast projecting a 19°C peak under cloudy skies with low precipitation risk (10-20%). This positioning reflects persistent cloud cover limiting solar insolation despite a warm air mass sustaining above-seasonal averages—late March normals hover around 17°C—after yesterday's observed 21°C high. Nearby outcomes like 18°C (22.5%) and 20°C (19.5%) capture model ensemble uncertainty, with partly clearing skies potentially allowing brief spikes. JMA hourly AMEDAS observations through afternoon will refine peak heating trajectories ahead of market resolution based on official Tokyo station data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 19°C as Tokyo's highest temperature today at 50.5% implied probability, closely tracking the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) March 29 evening forecast projecting a 19°C peak under cloudy skies with low precipitation risk (10-20%). This positioning reflects persistent cloud cover limiting solar insolation despite a warm air mass sustaining above-seasonal averages—late March normals hover around 17°C—after yesterday's observed 21°C high. Nearby outcomes like 18°C (22.5%) and 20°C (19.5%) capture model ensemble uncertainty, with partly clearing skies potentially allowing brief spikes. JMA hourly AMEDAS observations through afternoon will refine peak heating trajectories ahead of market resolution based on official Tokyo station data.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 30?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 11 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"19°C"，概率为 46%，其次是"18°C"，概率为 23%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 46¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 46%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 30?"已产生 $42.9K 的总交易量（自Mar 29, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 30?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 11 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 30?"的当前领先者是"19°C"，概率为 46%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 46%。紧随其后的结果是"18°C"，概率为 23%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 30?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。