Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with members split between persistent northerly flow behind March's mid-month cold front—potentially capping highs at 71°F or below—and amplification of a subtropical ridge pushing temperatures to 90°F or higher. Houston's climatological April 4 high averages 77°F, but recent heavy rains and gusty winds through March 16-21 have heightened volatility, while NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal temperatures for early April amid weak El Niño signals. Key differentiators include upper-air trough persistence versus ridging strength; watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Houston on April 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 4?
90°F or higher 21%
82-83°F 18%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
11%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
18%
90°F or higher
21%
90°F or higher 21%
82-83°F 18%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
$106 交易量
11%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
18%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
18%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
18%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
18%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
18%
82-83°F
$0 交易量
18%
84-85°F
$0 交易量
18%
86-87°F
$0 交易量
18%
88-89°F
$0 交易量
18%
90°F or higher
$0 交易量
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with members split between persistent northerly flow behind March's mid-month cold front—potentially capping highs at 71°F or below—and amplification of a subtropical ridge pushing temperatures to 90°F or higher. Houston's climatological April 4 high averages 77°F, but recent heavy rains and gusty winds through March 16-21 have heightened volatility, while NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal temperatures for early April amid weak El Niño signals. Key differentiators include upper-air trough persistence versus ridging strength; watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
交易量
$106结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with members split between persistent northerly flow behind March's mid-month cold front—potentially capping highs at 71°F or below—and amplification of a subtropical ridge pushing temperatures to 90°F or higher. Houston's climatological April 4 high averages 77°F, but recent heavy rains and gusty winds through March 16-21 have heightened volatility, while NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal temperatures for early April amid weak El Niño signals. Key differentiators include upper-air trough persistence versus ridging strength; watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$106结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with members split between persistent northerly flow behind March's mid-month cold front—potentially capping highs at 71°F or below—and amplification of a subtropical ridge pushing temperatures to 90°F or higher. Houston's climatological April 4 high averages 77°F, but recent heavy rains and gusty winds through March 16-21 have heightened volatility, while NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal temperatures for early April amid weak El Niño signals. Key differentiators include upper-air trough persistence versus ridging strength; watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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