Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95.5%), reflecting the absence of any verified Iranian military actions against commercial vessels in the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz over the past 30 days. While Iran-backed Houthi militants have conducted sporadic attacks on shipping amid Gaza tensions, Tehran has limited its role to rhetorical support and proxy coordination, avoiding direct naval strikes that could provoke escalated U.S. or allied retaliation, including recent U.S.-UK airstrikes on Houthi targets. Diplomatic signals from Iranian officials emphasize restraint amid ongoing nuclear talks and sanctions pressures. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden Hormuz Strait closure, unclaimed missile barrages, or retaliatory escalation following U.S. naval deployments, though historical patterns show Iran prefers asymmetric proxy actions over overt targeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于<5 96%
5–7 2.8%
8–10 <1%
11–13 <1%
$50,231 交易量
$50,231 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
<5
96%
5–7
3%
8–10
1%
11–13
1%
14–16
1%
17–19
<1%
20+
<1%
<5 96%
5–7 2.8%
8–10 <1%
11–13 <1%
$50,231 交易量
$50,231 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$21,976 交易量
96%
5–7
$5,713 交易量
3%
8–10
$3,640 交易量
1%
11–13
$2,890 交易量
1%
14–16
$5,125 交易量
1%
17–19
$2,680 交易量
<1%
20+
$8,208 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95.5%), reflecting the absence of any verified Iranian military actions against commercial vessels in the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz over the past 30 days. While Iran-backed Houthi militants have conducted sporadic attacks on shipping amid Gaza tensions, Tehran has limited its role to rhetorical support and proxy coordination, avoiding direct naval strikes that could provoke escalated U.S. or allied retaliation, including recent U.S.-UK airstrikes on Houthi targets. Diplomatic signals from Iranian officials emphasize restraint amid ongoing nuclear talks and sanctions pressures. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden Hormuz Strait closure, unclaimed missile barrages, or retaliatory escalation following U.S. naval deployments, though historical patterns show Iran prefers asymmetric proxy actions over overt targeting.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$50,231结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95.5%), reflecting the absence of any verified Iranian military actions against commercial vessels in the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz over the past 30 days. While Iran-backed Houthi militants have conducted sporadic attacks on shipping amid Gaza tensions, Tehran has limited its role to rhetorical support and proxy coordination, avoiding direct naval strikes that could provoke escalated U.S. or allied retaliation, including recent U.S.-UK airstrikes on Houthi targets. Diplomatic signals from Iranian officials emphasize restraint amid ongoing nuclear talks and sanctions pressures. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden Hormuz Strait closure, unclaimed missile barrages, or retaliatory escalation following U.S. naval deployments, though historical patterns show Iran prefers asymmetric proxy actions over overt targeting.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$50,231结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95.5%), reflecting the absence of any verified Iranian military actions against commercial vessels in the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz over the past 30 days. While Iran-backed Houthi militants have conducted sporadic attacks on shipping amid Gaza tensions, Tehran has limited its role to rhetorical support and proxy coordination, avoiding direct naval strikes that could provoke escalated U.S. or allied retaliation, including recent U.S.-UK airstrikes on Houthi targets. Diplomatic signals from Iranian officials emphasize restraint amid ongoing nuclear talks and sanctions pressures. Scenarios that could shift odds include a sudden Hormuz Strait closure, unclaimed missile barrages, or retaliatory escalation following U.S. naval deployments, though historical patterns show Iran prefers asymmetric proxy actions over overt targeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题