Trader consensus prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 48%, reflecting a week of heightened rhetoric but no verified strikes in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait or Red Sea following US warnings on March 26 amid Iran-US tensions. Iran threatened action there if escalation occurs, while Houthis vowed solidarity attacks on shipping, yet allied intercepts have curtailed successes since early March claims against US-linked tankers like the Chios Lion via drones and USVs. De-escalation signals, degraded Houthi capabilities from prior airstrikes, and diplomatic posturing keep higher brackets like 8-9 ships at 11.5%, with upcoming naval patrols and potential ceasefires as key catalysts through resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于<2 49%
2–3 16%
8–9 12%
4–5 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
49%
2–3
16%
4–5
11%
6–7
9%
8–9
12%
10+
8%
<2 49%
2–3 16%
8–9 12%
4–5 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$784 交易量
49%
2–3
$0 交易量
16%
4–5
$0 交易量
11%
6–7
$0 交易量
9%
8–9
$0 交易量
12%
10+
$100 交易量
8%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 48%, reflecting a week of heightened rhetoric but no verified strikes in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait or Red Sea following US warnings on March 26 amid Iran-US tensions. Iran threatened action there if escalation occurs, while Houthis vowed solidarity attacks on shipping, yet allied intercepts have curtailed successes since early March claims against US-linked tankers like the Chios Lion via drones and USVs. De-escalation signals, degraded Houthi capabilities from prior airstrikes, and diplomatic posturing keep higher brackets like 8-9 ships at 11.5%, with upcoming naval patrols and potential ceasefires as key catalysts through resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
交易量
$884结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 48%, reflecting a week of heightened rhetoric but no verified strikes in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait or Red Sea following US warnings on March 26 amid Iran-US tensions. Iran threatened action there if escalation occurs, while Houthis vowed solidarity attacks on shipping, yet allied intercepts have curtailed successes since early March claims against US-linked tankers like the Chios Lion via drones and USVs. De-escalation signals, degraded Houthi capabilities from prior airstrikes, and diplomatic posturing keep higher brackets like 8-9 ships at 11.5%, with upcoming naval patrols and potential ceasefires as key catalysts through resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$884结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 48%, reflecting a week of heightened rhetoric but no verified strikes in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait or Red Sea following US warnings on March 26 amid Iran-US tensions. Iran threatened action there if escalation occurs, while Houthis vowed solidarity attacks on shipping, yet allied intercepts have curtailed successes since early March claims against US-linked tankers like the Chios Lion via drones and USVs. De-escalation signals, degraded Houthi capabilities from prior airstrikes, and diplomatic posturing keep higher brackets like 8-9 ships at 11.5%, with upcoming naval patrols and potential ceasefires as key catalysts through resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题