Trader consensus prices a 50% chance of Israel striking four or more countries in April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, which has expanded to target nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, energy facilities, and leadership in Tehran as recently as March 27. IDF Chief of Staff statements indicate combat plans extending through Passover in mid-April, with senior officers confirming strike targets plotted six weeks ahead, fueling expectations of sustained operations. Persistent threats from Iran-backed proxies—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi missile strikes from Yemen, and routine Syrian interdictions—position 3 countries at 34.5%, while low odds on ≤1 reflect the multi-front escalation unlikely to pause before May resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≥4 46%
3 37%
2 15%
≤1 2.8%
$11,058 交易量
$11,058 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
3%
2
15%
3
37%
≥4
46%
≥4 46%
3 37%
2 15%
≤1 2.8%
$11,058 交易量
$11,058 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$2,690 交易量
3%
2
$1,251 交易量
15%
3
$2,406 交易量
37%
≥4
$4,711 交易量
46%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 50% chance of Israel striking four or more countries in April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, which has expanded to target nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, energy facilities, and leadership in Tehran as recently as March 27. IDF Chief of Staff statements indicate combat plans extending through Passover in mid-April, with senior officers confirming strike targets plotted six weeks ahead, fueling expectations of sustained operations. Persistent threats from Iran-backed proxies—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi missile strikes from Yemen, and routine Syrian interdictions—position 3 countries at 34.5%, while low odds on ≤1 reflect the multi-front escalation unlikely to pause before May resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$11,058结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 50% chance of Israel striking four or more countries in April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, which has expanded to target nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, energy facilities, and leadership in Tehran as recently as March 27. IDF Chief of Staff statements indicate combat plans extending through Passover in mid-April, with senior officers confirming strike targets plotted six weeks ahead, fueling expectations of sustained operations. Persistent threats from Iran-backed proxies—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi missile strikes from Yemen, and routine Syrian interdictions—position 3 countries at 34.5%, while low odds on ≤1 reflect the multi-front escalation unlikely to pause before May resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$11,058结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a 50% chance of Israel striking four or more countries in April amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, which has expanded to target nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, energy facilities, and leadership in Tehran as recently as March 27. IDF Chief of Staff statements indicate combat plans extending through Passover in mid-April, with senior officers confirming strike targets plotted six weeks ahead, fueling expectations of sustained operations. Persistent threats from Iran-backed proxies—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi missile strikes from Yemen, and routine Syrian interdictions—position 3 countries at 34.5%, while low odds on ≤1 reflect the multi-front escalation unlikely to pause before May resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题