Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80.5% implied probability), reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. Senate incumbents falling in primaries—fewer than 5% since 2000—and minimal credible challenges across the 12 remaining Democratic-held Class II seats in states like Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Virginia. Recent March 3 early primaries in Texas and elsewhere produced no Democratic Senate incumbent upsets, with high Democratic turnout in competitive open-seat races like Illinois (post-Durbin retirement). In Colorado, incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper bypassed the March Democratic caucus amid a progressive challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales but qualified via signatures for the June primary, sustaining trader confidence in incumbency advantages ahead of later contests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0 70%
1 10.5%
3 4.1%
>4 2.9%
最新
最新
0
81%
1
11%
2
8%
3
4%
4
2%
>4
3%
0 70%
1 10.5%
3 4.1%
>4 2.9%
最新
最新
0
$1,250 交易量
81%
1
$1,179 交易量
11%
2
$556 交易量
8%
3
$263 交易量
4%
4
$276 交易量
2%
>4
$188 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80.5% implied probability), reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. Senate incumbents falling in primaries—fewer than 5% since 2000—and minimal credible challenges across the 12 remaining Democratic-held Class II seats in states like Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Virginia. Recent March 3 early primaries in Texas and elsewhere produced no Democratic Senate incumbent upsets, with high Democratic turnout in competitive open-seat races like Illinois (post-Durbin retirement). In Colorado, incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper bypassed the March Democratic caucus amid a progressive challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales but qualified via signatures for the June primary, sustaining trader confidence in incumbency advantages ahead of later contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$3,712市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80.5% implied probability), reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. Senate incumbents falling in primaries—fewer than 5% since 2000—and minimal credible challenges across the 12 remaining Democratic-held Class II seats in states like Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Virginia. Recent March 3 early primaries in Texas and elsewhere produced no Democratic Senate incumbent upsets, with high Democratic turnout in competitive open-seat races like Illinois (post-Durbin retirement). In Colorado, incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper bypassed the March Democratic caucus amid a progressive challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales but qualified via signatures for the June primary, sustaining trader confidence in incumbency advantages ahead of later contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$3,712市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80.5% implied probability), reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. Senate incumbents falling in primaries—fewer than 5% since 2000—and minimal credible challenges across the 12 remaining Democratic-held Class II seats in states like Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Virginia. Recent March 3 early primaries in Texas and elsewhere produced no Democratic Senate incumbent upsets, with high Democratic turnout in competitive open-seat races like Illinois (post-Durbin retirement). In Colorado, incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper bypassed the March Democratic caucus amid a progressive challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales but qualified via signatures for the June primary, sustaining trader confidence in incumbency advantages ahead of later contests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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