Trader consensus in the Galway West Dáil by-election, expected late May under PR-STV, prices Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas highest at 28% implied probability, reflecting his ex-Fianna Fáil local profile, recent campaign office opening, and party endorsements amid protest voter appeal. Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan follows at 16%, buoyed by his selection eight days ago, while independents Thomas Welby (14.5%) and mayor Mike Cubbard (recently announced) draw on community recognition. A fresh left pact among six candidates—including Lohan, Labour's Helen Ogbu (13.8%), Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, and People Before Profit's Denman Rooke—aims to streamline transfers. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could boost their nominee, with transfers, organization, and visibility key to consolidating the fragmented field absent public polls.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于诺埃尔·托马斯 28%
马克·洛汉 16%
托马斯·韦尔比 15%
丹曼·鲁克 14%
$19,583 交易量
$19,583 交易量
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
8%
Seán Kyne
7%
尼尔·墨菲
4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
12%
奥拉·纳金特
12%
海伦·奥格布
13%
丹曼·鲁克
14%
诺埃尔·托马斯
28%
托马斯·韦尔比
15%
迈克·卡巴德
7%
马克·洛汉
16%
诺埃尔·托马斯 28%
马克·洛汉 16%
托马斯·韦尔比 15%
丹曼·鲁克 14%
$19,583 交易量
$19,583 交易量
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
$18,469 交易量
8%
Seán Kyne
$71 交易量
7%
尼尔·墨菲
$97 交易量
4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$97 交易量
12%
奥拉·纳金特
$103 交易量
12%
海伦·奥格布
$292 交易量
13%
丹曼·鲁克
$58 交易量
14%
诺埃尔·托马斯
$126 交易量
28%
托马斯·韦尔比
$77 交易量
15%
迈克·卡巴德
$58 交易量
7%
马克·洛汉
$134 交易量
16%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus in the Galway West Dáil by-election, expected late May under PR-STV, prices Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas highest at 28% implied probability, reflecting his ex-Fianna Fáil local profile, recent campaign office opening, and party endorsements amid protest voter appeal. Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan follows at 16%, buoyed by his selection eight days ago, while independents Thomas Welby (14.5%) and mayor Mike Cubbard (recently announced) draw on community recognition. A fresh left pact among six candidates—including Lohan, Labour's Helen Ogbu (13.8%), Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, and People Before Profit's Denman Rooke—aims to streamline transfers. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could boost their nominee, with transfers, organization, and visibility key to consolidating the fragmented field absent public polls.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
交易量
$19,583结束日期
Mar 31, 2027市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus in the Galway West Dáil by-election, expected late May under PR-STV, prices Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas highest at 28% implied probability, reflecting his ex-Fianna Fáil local profile, recent campaign office opening, and party endorsements amid protest voter appeal. Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan follows at 16%, buoyed by his selection eight days ago, while independents Thomas Welby (14.5%) and mayor Mike Cubbard (recently announced) draw on community recognition. A fresh left pact among six candidates—including Lohan, Labour's Helen Ogbu (13.8%), Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, and People Before Profit's Denman Rooke—aims to streamline transfers. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could boost their nominee, with transfers, organization, and visibility key to consolidating the fragmented field absent public polls.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$19,583结束日期
Mar 31, 2027市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Galway West Dáil by-election, expected late May under PR-STV, prices Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas highest at 28% implied probability, reflecting his ex-Fianna Fáil local profile, recent campaign office opening, and party endorsements amid protest voter appeal. Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan follows at 16%, buoyed by his selection eight days ago, while independents Thomas Welby (14.5%) and mayor Mike Cubbard (recently announced) draw on community recognition. A fresh left pact among six candidates—including Lohan, Labour's Helen Ogbu (13.8%), Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, and People Before Profit's Denman Rooke—aims to streamline transfers. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could boost their nominee, with transfers, organization, and visibility key to consolidating the fragmented field absent public polls.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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