Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, assign an 84.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%—driven by the central bank's March 17-18 decision to hold steady in an 11-1 vote amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January but with core measures elevated, while the updated dot plot raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and penciled in just one cut for the year, reflecting oil price surges from the Iran conflict. Labor market resilience despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls supports the pause consensus, with futures implying near-certainty for April 28-29 inaction and 85% odds for June 16-17. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced data-dependent patience ahead of upcoming March jobs data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 85%
暂停–暂停–降息 8%
其他 5.6%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.2%
$716,509 交易量
$716,509 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
85%
暂停–暂停–降息
8%
其他
6%
按兵不动–降息–降息
1%
暂停–降息–暂停
1%
连续三次按兵不动 85%
暂停–暂停–降息 8%
其他 5.6%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.2%
$716,509 交易量
$716,509 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$19,145 交易量
85%
暂停–暂停–降息
$11,221 交易量
8%
其他
$210,599 交易量
6%
按兵不动–降息–降息
$345,600 交易量
1%
暂停–降息–暂停
$129,944 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders, wagering real capital, assign an 84.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%—driven by the central bank's March 17-18 decision to hold steady in an 11-1 vote amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January but with core measures elevated, while the updated dot plot raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and penciled in just one cut for the year, reflecting oil price surges from the Iran conflict. Labor market resilience despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls supports the pause consensus, with futures implying near-certainty for April 28-29 inaction and 85% odds for June 16-17. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced data-dependent patience ahead of upcoming March jobs data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$716,509结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders, wagering real capital, assign an 84.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%—driven by the central bank's March 17-18 decision to hold steady in an 11-1 vote amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January but with core measures elevated, while the updated dot plot raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and penciled in just one cut for the year, reflecting oil price surges from the Iran conflict. Labor market resilience despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls supports the pause consensus, with futures implying near-certainty for April 28-29 inaction and 85% odds for June 16-17. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced data-dependent patience ahead of upcoming March jobs data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$716,509结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, assign an 84.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%—driven by the central bank's March 17-18 decision to hold steady in an 11-1 vote amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January but with core measures elevated, while the updated dot plot raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and penciled in just one cut for the year, reflecting oil price surges from the Iran conflict. Labor market resilience despite February's -92,000 nonfarm payrolls supports the pause consensus, with futures implying near-certainty for April 28-29 inaction and 85% odds for June 16-17. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks reinforced data-dependent patience ahead of upcoming March jobs data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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