Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing the status quo after consecutive holds in late January and mid-March. This strong positioning stems from February CPI inflation holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year, a resilient labor market despite modest softening, and the March dot plot projecting just one quarter-point cut later in 2026, likely June. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience amid firm economic footing. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due April 10) or nonfarm payrolls data prompting an April 28-29 cut to support growth.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于连续暂停 97.5%
暂停–暂停–降息 1.5%
其他 1.3%
$392,036 交易量
$392,036 交易量
2026-04-29
连续暂停
98%
暂停–暂停–降息
1%
其他
1%
连续暂停 97.5%
暂停–暂停–降息 1.5%
其他 1.3%
$392,036 交易量
$392,036 交易量
2026-04-29
连续暂停
$48,586 交易量
98%
暂停–暂停–降息
$167,699 交易量
1%
其他
$135,764 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing the status quo after consecutive holds in late January and mid-March. This strong positioning stems from February CPI inflation holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year, a resilient labor market despite modest softening, and the March dot plot projecting just one quarter-point cut later in 2026, likely June. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience amid firm economic footing. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due April 10) or nonfarm payrolls data prompting an April 28-29 cut to support growth.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
交易量
$392,036结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing the status quo after consecutive holds in late January and mid-March. This strong positioning stems from February CPI inflation holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year, a resilient labor market despite modest softening, and the March dot plot projecting just one quarter-point cut later in 2026, likely June. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience amid firm economic footing. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due April 10) or nonfarm payrolls data prompting an April 28-29 cut to support growth.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$392,036结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing the status quo after consecutive holds in late January and mid-March. This strong positioning stems from February CPI inflation holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year, a resilient labor market despite modest softening, and the March dot plot projecting just one quarter-point cut later in 2026, likely June. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience amid firm economic footing. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due April 10) or nonfarm payrolls data prompting an April 28-29 cut to support growth.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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