Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 1000-1700 tweets in May 2026, with the 1600-1679 range leading at 18.8% implied probability amid razor-thin margins over nearby bins like 1120-1159 (17.6%) and 1080-1119 (17.3%). This reflects his historical prolificacy—averaging 35-55 posts daily in recent high-volume months like late 2024—driven by X ownership, political engagement, and meme culture dominance. Sentiment hinges on whether his potential DOGE role in a Trump administration amplifies viral bursts or curbs output for executive duties, per verified tweet analytics from SocialBlade and X data. Absent major platform changes, traders anticipate sustained cultural force, though volatility from real-time events keeps lower bins viable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1160-1199 17.5%
1320-1359 13.8%
1480-1519 13.8%
1040-1079 12.7%
$61,036 交易量
$61,036 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
13%
1080-1119
18%
1120-1159
18%
1160-1199
17%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
9%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
14%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
10%
1480-1519
14%
1520-1559
14%
1560-1599
11%
1600-1679
18%
1680-1759
13%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1160-1199 17.5%
1320-1359 13.8%
1480-1519 13.8%
1040-1079 12.7%
$61,036 交易量
$61,036 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
13%
1080-1119
18%
1120-1159
18%
1160-1199
17%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
9%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
14%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
10%
1480-1519
14%
1520-1559
14%
1560-1599
11%
1600-1679
18%
1680-1759
13%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 1000-1700 tweets in May 2026, with the 1600-1679 range leading at 18.8% implied probability amid razor-thin margins over nearby bins like 1120-1159 (17.6%) and 1080-1119 (17.3%). This reflects his historical prolificacy—averaging 35-55 posts daily in recent high-volume months like late 2024—driven by X ownership, political engagement, and meme culture dominance. Sentiment hinges on whether his potential DOGE role in a Trump administration amplifies viral bursts or curbs output for executive duties, per verified tweet analytics from SocialBlade and X data. Absent major platform changes, traders anticipate sustained cultural force, though volatility from real-time events keeps lower bins viable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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