Post-2024 election defeat for Kamala Harris has left the Democratic presidential nomination for 2028 as a wide-open field, with traders assigning Gavin Newsom the highest implied probability due to his executive experience as California governor, massive fundraising network, and early national positioning through swing-state tours and anti-Trump messaging. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at second amid enthusiasm from progressive voters for her media savvy and criticism of Republican policies during recent congressional battles. Jon Ossoff's standing reflects his reelection path in battleground Georgia and moderate appeal. Key differentiators include governing records, ideological lanes, and donor backing; consolidation could follow strong 2026 midterm performances, major endorsements, or viral campaign moments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加文·纽瑟姆 24.1%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.2%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.9%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.4%
$920,789,172 交易量
$920,789,172 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
J.B. Pritzker
3%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
马克·凯利
2%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
2%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
加文·纽瑟姆 24.1%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.2%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.9%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.4%
$920,789,172 交易量
$920,789,172 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
J.B. Pritzker
3%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
马克·凯利
2%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
2%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Post-2024 election defeat for Kamala Harris has left the Democratic presidential nomination for 2028 as a wide-open field, with traders assigning Gavin Newsom the highest implied probability due to his executive experience as California governor, massive fundraising network, and early national positioning through swing-state tours and anti-Trump messaging. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at second amid enthusiasm from progressive voters for her media savvy and criticism of Republican policies during recent congressional battles. Jon Ossoff's standing reflects his reelection path in battleground Georgia and moderate appeal. Key differentiators include governing records, ideological lanes, and donor backing; consolidation could follow strong 2026 midterm performances, major endorsements, or viral campaign moments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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