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政治·全球选举

哥伦比亚总统选举

Market icon
政治·全球选举

哥伦比亚总统选举

伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗 42%

帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚 41.4%

Abelardo de la Espriella 14%

塞尔希奥·法哈多（DC） <1%

Polymarket

$8,847,146 交易量

伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗 42%

帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚 41.4%

Abelardo de la Espriella 14%

塞尔希奥·法哈多（DC） <1%

Polymarket

$8,847,146 交易量

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伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗

$439,257 交易量

42%

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帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚

$551,052 交易量

41%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$546,595 交易量

14%

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塞尔希奥·法哈多（DC）

$1,301,840 交易量

1%

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卡洛斯·费利佩·科尔多瓦

$88,974 交易量

<1%

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分组项标题：克劳迪娅·洛佩斯（IND）

$488,759 交易量

<1%

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分组项标题：路易斯·吉尔贝托·穆里略（CRB）

$1,199,861 交易量

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$951,345 交易量

<1%

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胡安·丹尼尔·奥维多 (IND)

$537,521 交易量

<1%

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分组条目标题：罗伊·巴雷拉斯

$698,489 交易量

<1%

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维基·达维拉（IND）

$442,070 交易量

<1%

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大卫·卢娜·桑切斯（独立）

$380,154 交易量

<1%

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古斯塔沃·博利瓦尔 (HC)

$0 交易量

<1%

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胡安·曼努埃尔·加兰（NL）

$498,016 交易量

<1%

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毛里西奥·卡德纳斯

$0 交易量

<1%

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丹尼尔·昆特罗

$410,594 交易量

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$0 交易量

<1%

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胡安·卡洛斯·平松

$288,002 交易量

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus prices Candidate M slightly ahead at 49.5% implied probability for the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with Iván Cepeda Castro (left, Pacto Histórico) at 42% and Paloma Valencia (center-right, Centro Democrático) at 41.9%, reflecting a fiercely contested first-round vote on May 31 amid likely runoff scenarios. The March 8 congressional elections delivered Historic Pact a plurality of seats without a supermajority, while primaries solidified Cepeda's leftist banner and propelled Valencia's surge—garnering over 58% in her consulta—to challenge earlier right-wing leader Abelardo de la Espriella, whose support has eroded per late-March polls like Centro Nacional de Consultoría showing Cepeda at 34-37%, Valencia at 22-24%. Polarization over violence, corruption, and Petro's lame-duck policies keeps the race tight; endorsements, debates, or economic shocks could consolidate the fragmented right or erode Cepeda's base for separation.

Trader consensus prices Candidate M slightly ahead at 49.5% implied probability for the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with Iván Cepeda Castro (left, Pacto Histórico) at 42% and Paloma Valencia (center-right, Centro Democrático) at 41.9%, reflecting a fiercely contested first-round vote on May 31 amid likely runoff scenarios. The March 8 congressional elections delivered Historic Pact a plurality of seats without a supermajority, while primaries solidified Cepeda's leftist banner and propelled Valencia's surge—garnering over 58% in her consulta—to challenge earlier right-wing leader Abelardo de la Espriella, whose support has eroded per late-March polls like Centro Nacional de Consultoría showing Cepeda at 34-37%, Valencia at 22-24%. Polarization over violence, corruption, and Petro's lame-duck policies keeps the race tight; endorsements, debates, or economic shocks could consolidate the fragmented right or erode Cepeda's base for separation.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus prices Candidate M slightly ahead at 49.5% implied probability for the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with Iván Cepeda Castro (left, Pacto Histórico) at 42% and Paloma Valencia (center-right, Centro Democrático) at 41.9%, reflecting a fiercely contested first-round vote on May 31 amid likely runoff scenarios. The March 8 congressional elections delivered Historic Pact a plurality of seats without a supermajority, while primaries solidified Cepeda's leftist banner and propelled Valencia's surge—garnering over 58% in her consulta—to challenge earlier right-wing leader Abelardo de la Espriella, whose support has eroded per late-March polls like Centro Nacional de Consultoría showing Cepeda at 34-37%, Valencia at 22-24%. Polarization over violence, corruption, and Petro's lame-duck policies keeps the race tight; endorsements, debates, or economic shocks could consolidate the fragmented right or erode Cepeda's base for separation.

Trader consensus prices Candidate M slightly ahead at 49.5% implied probability for the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with Iván Cepeda Castro (left, Pacto Histórico) at 42% and Paloma Valencia (center-right, Centro Democrático) at 41.9%, reflecting a fiercely contested first-round vote on May 31 amid likely runoff scenarios. The March 8 congressional elections delivered Historic Pact a plurality of seats without a supermajority, while primaries solidified Cepeda's leftist banner and propelled Valencia's surge—garnering over 58% in her consulta—to challenge earlier right-wing leader Abelardo de la Espriella, whose support has eroded per late-March polls like Centro Nacional de Consultoría showing Cepeda at 34-37%, Valencia at 22-24%. Polarization over violence, corruption, and Petro's lame-duck policies keeps the race tight; endorsements, debates, or economic shocks could consolidate the fragmented right or erode Cepeda's base for separation.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"哥伦比亚总统选举"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 19 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗"，概率为 42%，其次是"帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚"，概率为 41%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 42¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 42%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"哥伦比亚总统选举"已产生 $8.8 million 的总交易量（自Jul 29, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哥伦比亚总统选举"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 19 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哥伦比亚总统选举"的当前领先者是"伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗"，概率为 42%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 42%。紧随其后的结果是"帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚"，概率为 41%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哥伦比亚总统选举"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。