Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, driven by his sustained poll dominance after the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where Pacto Histórico claimed the largest bloc without a supermajority. Recent Guarumo, CNC, and AtlasIntel surveys place Cepeda at 35-38% intention of vote, well ahead of Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), amid fragmented right-wing candidacies that prevent consolidation. Left-wing unity post-consultations, coupled with right disunity, has propelled odds toward Cepeda clearing the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, though a competitive runoff remains possible if opponents merge support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗 74%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚 18.1%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 5.1%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略 <1%
$1,743,425 交易量
$1,743,425 交易量
May 31, 2026
伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗
74%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚
18%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉
5%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略
1%
塞尔吉奥·法哈多
<1%
胡安·曼努埃尔·加兰
<1%
胡安·丹尼尔·奥维耶多
<1%
维奇·达维拉
<1%
大卫·卢纳·桑切斯
<1%
胡安·卡洛斯·平松
<1%
毛里西奥·卡尔德纳斯
<1%
古斯塔沃·博利瓦尔
<1%
罗伊·巴雷拉斯
<1%
克劳迪娅·洛佩斯
<1%
赫尔曼·巴尔加斯·耶拉斯
<1%
丹尼尔·金特罗
<1%
恩里克·佩尼亚洛萨
<1%
伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗 74%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚 18.1%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 5.1%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略 <1%
$1,743,425 交易量
$1,743,425 交易量
May 31, 2026
伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗
$52,974 交易量
74%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚
$208,135 交易量
18%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉
$467,360 交易量
5%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略
$94,441 交易量
1%
塞尔吉奥·法哈多
$49,899 交易量
<1%
胡安·曼努埃尔·加兰
$67,333 交易量
<1%
胡安·丹尼尔·奥维耶多
$34,486 交易量
<1%
维奇·达维拉
$236,343 交易量
<1%
大卫·卢纳·桑切斯
$149,288 交易量
<1%
胡安·卡洛斯·平松
$37,018 交易量
<1%
毛里西奥·卡尔德纳斯
$23,028 交易量
<1%
古斯塔沃·博利瓦尔
$72,735 交易量
<1%
罗伊·巴雷拉斯
$73,346 交易量
<1%
克劳迪娅·洛佩斯
$52,011 交易量
<1%
赫尔曼·巴尔加斯·耶拉斯
$39,304 交易量
<1%
丹尼尔·金特罗
$21,937 交易量
<1%
恩里克·佩尼亚洛萨
$27,284 交易量
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, driven by his sustained poll dominance after the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where Pacto Histórico claimed the largest bloc without a supermajority. Recent Guarumo, CNC, and AtlasIntel surveys place Cepeda at 35-38% intention of vote, well ahead of Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), amid fragmented right-wing candidacies that prevent consolidation. Left-wing unity post-consultations, coupled with right disunity, has propelled odds toward Cepeda clearing the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, though a competitive runoff remains possible if opponents merge support.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,743,425结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, driven by his sustained poll dominance after the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where Pacto Histórico claimed the largest bloc without a supermajority. Recent Guarumo, CNC, and AtlasIntel surveys place Cepeda at 35-38% intention of vote, well ahead of Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), amid fragmented right-wing candidacies that prevent consolidation. Left-wing unity post-consultations, coupled with right disunity, has propelled odds toward Cepeda clearing the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, though a competitive runoff remains possible if opponents merge support.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
交易量
$1,743,425结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, driven by his sustained poll dominance after the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where Pacto Histórico claimed the largest bloc without a supermajority. Recent Guarumo, CNC, and AtlasIntel surveys place Cepeda at 35-38% intention of vote, well ahead of Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), amid fragmented right-wing candidacies that prevent consolidation. Left-wing unity post-consultations, coupled with right disunity, has propelled odds toward Cepeda clearing the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, though a competitive runoff remains possible if opponents merge support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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