Trader consensus in the California gubernatorial election market heavily favors U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell at 68.5% implied probability, buoyed by his national profile from congressional oversight roles and Northern California district roots amid Gov. Gavin Newsom's 2026 term limit creating an open race. Philanthropist Tom Steyer trails at 8.2%, leveraging prior statewide bids and self-funding capacity, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (8%) and commentator Steve Hilton (6.1%) gain from regional appeal and conservative angles. Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (3.3%) draws law enforcement support. No candidates have formally launched full campaigns, but early speculation dominates absent polls; watch for 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements shifting odds as the June 2026 primary nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔 69%
汤姆·斯泰尔 8.2%
马特·马汉 8%
史蒂夫·希尔顿 6.1%
$3,411,577 交易量
$3,411,577 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔
69%
汤姆·斯泰尔
8%
马特·马汉
8%
史蒂夫·希尔顿
6%
查德·比安科
3%
凯蒂·波特
2%
伊莱恩·库洛蒂
2%
哈维尔·贝塞拉
<1%
托尼·瑟蒙德
<1%
安东尼奥·维拉莱戈萨
<1%
利奥·扎基
<1%
里克·卡鲁索
<1%
斯蒂芬·克鲁贝克
<1%
贝蒂·易
<1%
凯尔·兰福德
<1%
埃莱尼·库纳拉基斯
<1%
卡马拉·哈里斯
<1%
亚历克斯·帕迪利亚
<1%
Butch Ware
<1%
托尼·阿特金斯
<1%
丹尼尔·梅库里
<1%
迈克尔·杨格
<1%
妮可·沙纳汉
<1%
埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔 69%
汤姆·斯泰尔 8.2%
马特·马汉 8%
史蒂夫·希尔顿 6.1%
$3,411,577 交易量
$3,411,577 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔
$76,186 交易量
69%
汤姆·斯泰尔
$669,920 交易量
8%
马特·马汉
$156,432 交易量
8%
史蒂夫·希尔顿
$375,656 交易量
6%
查德·比安科
$387,327 交易量
3%
凯蒂·波特
$440,328 交易量
2%
伊莱恩·库洛蒂
$43,447 交易量
2%
哈维尔·贝塞拉
$285,271 交易量
<1%
托尼·瑟蒙德
$107,639 交易量
<1%
安东尼奥·维拉莱戈萨
$40,467 交易量
<1%
利奥·扎基
$13,357 交易量
<1%
里克·卡鲁索
$30,567 交易量
<1%
斯蒂芬·克鲁贝克
$26,290 交易量
<1%
贝蒂·易
$56,497 交易量
<1%
凯尔·兰福德
$46,482 交易量
<1%
埃莱尼·库纳拉基斯
$174,495 交易量
<1%
卡马拉·哈里斯
$69,331 交易量
<1%
亚历克斯·帕迪利亚
$76,816 交易量
<1%
Butch Ware
$21,632 交易量
<1%
托尼·阿特金斯
$139,596 交易量
<1%
丹尼尔·梅库里
$23,864 交易量
<1%
迈克尔·杨格
$65,995 交易量
<1%
妮可·沙纳汉
$83,983 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$3,411,577结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
交易量
$3,411,577结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the California gubernatorial election market heavily favors U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell at 68.5% implied probability, buoyed by his national profile from congressional oversight roles and Northern California district roots amid Gov. Gavin Newsom's 2026 term limit creating an open race. Philanthropist Tom Steyer trails at 8.2%, leveraging prior statewide bids and self-funding capacity, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (8%) and commentator Steve Hilton (6.1%) gain from regional appeal and conservative angles. Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (3.3%) draws law enforcement support. No candidates have formally launched full campaigns, but early speculation dominates absent polls; watch for 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements shifting odds as the June 2026 primary nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题