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选举·主要

CA-04主要获奖者

Market icon
选举·主要

CA-04主要获奖者

NEW
Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 交易量

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$0 交易量

95%

Eric Jones

$0 交易量

88%

Trevor Merrell

$0 交易量

16%

Laurie MacKenzie

$0 交易量

8%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 交易量

8%

Mandy Ghusar

$0 交易量

6%

Sharon Brown

$0 交易量

6%

John Wesley Tyler

$0 交易量

5%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock dominated the California 4th Congressional District's top-two primary on March 5, 2024, capturing 67.6% of the vote to secure first place, while Democrat Elizabeth Lashley-Hitchcock advanced in second with 32.4%, setting up a general election matchup on November 5. Official results were certified by the California Secretary of State in early April without recounts or legal challenges, anchoring trader consensus on these outcomes. The district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by McClintock's consistent incumbency since 2009 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12—explains the lopsided primary results, with no significant developments in the past 30 days altering the resolved standings. Traders monitor for any rare post-certification disputes, though none are pending.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$0
结束日期
Jun 2, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock dominated the California 4th Congressional District's top-two primary on March 5, 2024, capturing 67.6% of the vote to secure first place, while Democrat Elizabeth Lashley-Hitchcock advanced in second with 32.4%, setting up a general election matchup on November 5. Official results were certified by the California Secretary of State in early April without recounts or legal challenges, anchoring trader consensus on these outcomes. The district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by McClintock's consistent incumbency since 2009 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12—explains the lopsided primary results, with no significant developments in the past 30 days altering the resolved standings. Traders monitor for any rare post-certification disputes, though none are pending.

Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock dominated the California 4th Congressional District's top-two primary on March 5, 2024, capturing 67.6% of the vote to secure first place, while Democrat Elizabeth Lashley-Hitchcock advanced in second with 32.4%, setting up a general election matchup on November 5. Official results were certified by the California Secretary of State in early April without recounts or legal challenges, anchoring trader consensus on these outcomes. The district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by McClintock's consistent incumbency since 2009 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12—explains the lopsided primary results, with no significant developments in the past 30 days altering the resolved standings. Traders monitor for any rare post-certification disputes, though none are pending.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"CA-04主要获奖者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Mike Thompson"，概率为 95%，其次是"Eric Jones"，概率为 88%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 95¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 95%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"CA-04主要获奖者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Feb 26, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"CA-04主要获奖者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"CA-04主要获奖者"的当前领先者是"Mike Thompson"，概率为 95%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 95%。紧随其后的结果是"Eric Jones"，概率为 88%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"CA-04主要获奖者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。