Market icon
选举·主要

CA-04主要获奖者

Market icon
选举·主要

CA-04主要获奖者

$10,901 交易量

2026-06-02
Polymarket

$10,901 交易量

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,431 交易量

96%

Eric Jones

$2,687 交易量

90%

Trevor Merrell

$0 交易量

17%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 交易量

8%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 交易量

8%

Sharon Brown

$0 交易量

7%

Mandy Ghusar

$698 交易量

6%

John Wesley Tyler

$457 交易量

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's 4th Congressional District nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, 2026, trader consensus favors both leading Democrats—incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—advancing due to a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting votes. Jones, a former venture capitalist emphasizing affordability and economic opportunity, has outraised Thompson through year-end 2025 ($2.59 million vs. $2.04 million receipts) and recently won a local Indivisible Yolo straw poll following a candidate forum. The redrawn district post-Prop 50 approval narrows its D+17 partisan lean slightly but remains safely Democratic, with Thompson's 28-year tenure, bipartisan record, and party endorsements bolstering his position amid historical patterns of split opposition favoring top fundraisers. Low GOP consolidation or unexpected turnout shifts could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$10,901
结束日期
2026-06-02
市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's 4th Congressional District nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, 2026, trader consensus favors both leading Democrats—incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—advancing due to a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting votes. Jones, a former venture capitalist emphasizing affordability and economic opportunity, has outraised Thompson through year-end 2025 ($2.59 million vs. $2.04 million receipts) and recently won a local Indivisible Yolo straw poll following a candidate forum. The redrawn district post-Prop 50 approval narrows its D+17 partisan lean slightly but remains safely Democratic, with Thompson's 28-year tenure, bipartisan record, and party endorsements bolstering his position amid historical patterns of split opposition favoring top fundraisers. Low GOP consolidation or unexpected turnout shifts could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$10,901
结束日期
2026-06-02
市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"CA-04主要获奖者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Mike Thompson"，概率为 96%，其次是"Eric Jones"，概率为 90%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 96¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 96%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"CA-04主要获奖者"已产生 $10.9K 的总交易量（自Feb 26, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"CA-04主要获奖者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"CA-04主要获奖者"的当前领先者是"Mike Thompson"，概率为 96%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 96%。紧随其后的结果是"Eric Jones"，概率为 90%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"CA-04主要获奖者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。