Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading contender to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting its consistent 22% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, Die Linke and SPD around 15-16%, Grüne at 15%. This positioning stems from national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, amplified by the party's victory in the March 22 Rheinland-Pfalz state election despite AfD gains elsewhere, while Berlin's incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition faces voter fatigue amid governance challenges. No new polls since early March leave room for shifts, but the Sonntagsfrage trend underscores CDU's path to plurality amid proportional representation dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 50%
德国选择党 13.7%
林克党 13%
格林党 10.2%
$1,826,510 交易量
$1,826,510 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
50%
德国选择党
14%
林克党
13%
格林党
10%
社民党
9%
BSW
<1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 50%
德国选择党 13.7%
林克党 13%
格林党 10.2%
$1,826,510 交易量
$1,826,510 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$9,012 交易量
50%
德国选择党
$1,477,297 交易量
14%
林克党
$8,150 交易量
13%
格林党
$23,073 交易量
10%
社民党
$281,769 交易量
9%
BSW
$15,565 交易量
<1%
自民党
$8,318 交易量
<1%
FW
$5,121 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading contender to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting its consistent 22% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, Die Linke and SPD around 15-16%, Grüne at 15%. This positioning stems from national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, amplified by the party's victory in the March 22 Rheinland-Pfalz state election despite AfD gains elsewhere, while Berlin's incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition faces voter fatigue amid governance challenges. No new polls since early March leave room for shifts, but the Sonntagsfrage trend underscores CDU's path to plurality amid proportional representation dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$1,826,510结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading contender to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting its consistent 22% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, Die Linke and SPD around 15-16%, Grüne at 15%. This positioning stems from national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, amplified by the party's victory in the March 22 Rheinland-Pfalz state election despite AfD gains elsewhere, while Berlin's incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition faces voter fatigue amid governance challenges. No new polls since early March leave room for shifts, but the Sonntagsfrage trend underscores CDU's path to plurality amid proportional representation dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$1,826,510结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading contender to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting its consistent 22% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented field—AfD at 17%, Die Linke and SPD around 15-16%, Grüne at 15%. This positioning stems from national CDU momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, amplified by the party's victory in the March 22 Rheinland-Pfalz state election despite AfD gains elsewhere, while Berlin's incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition faces voter fatigue amid governance challenges. No new polls since early March leave room for shifts, but the Sonntagsfrage trend underscores CDU's path to plurality amid proportional representation dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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