Trader consensus favors the CDU with 50.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls around 22%—as shown in late February INSA and Civey surveys—while SPD, Grüne, AfD, and Die Linke hover at 15-17% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from governing stability amid national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal leadership. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past month, though recent state election results elsewhere, like CDU gains in Rhineland-Palatinate, reinforce conservative strength; upcoming polls and campaign events could narrow the race for the Abgeordnetenhaus plurality.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 51%
格林党 11.7%
林克党 12%
德国选择党 10.8%
$1,936,882 交易量
$1,936,882 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
51%
格林党
12%
林克党
12%
德国选择党
11%
社民党
9%
BSW
1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 51%
格林党 11.7%
林克党 12%
德国选择党 10.8%
$1,936,882 交易量
$1,936,882 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$9,012 交易量
51%
格林党
$23,086 交易量
12%
林克党
$8,237 交易量
12%
德国选择党
$1,585,897 交易量
11%
社民党
$281,769 交易量
9%
BSW
$15,565 交易量
1%
自民党
$8,318 交易量
<1%
FW
$5,121 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 50.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls around 22%—as shown in late February INSA and Civey surveys—while SPD, Grüne, AfD, and Die Linke hover at 15-17% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from governing stability amid national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal leadership. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past month, though recent state election results elsewhere, like CDU gains in Rhineland-Palatinate, reinforce conservative strength; upcoming polls and campaign events could narrow the race for the Abgeordnetenhaus plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$1,936,882结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 50.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls around 22%—as shown in late February INSA and Civey surveys—while SPD, Grüne, AfD, and Die Linke hover at 15-17% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from governing stability amid national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal leadership. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past month, though recent state election results elsewhere, like CDU gains in Rhineland-Palatinate, reinforce conservative strength; upcoming polls and campaign events could narrow the race for the Abgeordnetenhaus plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$1,936,882结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with 50.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls around 22%—as shown in late February INSA and Civey surveys—while SPD, Grüne, AfD, and Die Linke hover at 15-17% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from governing stability amid national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal leadership. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past month, though recent state election results elsewhere, like CDU gains in Rhineland-Palatinate, reinforce conservative strength; upcoming polls and campaign events could narrow the race for the Abgeordnetenhaus plurality.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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