CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 55%
林克党 14%
德国选择党 12.2%
格林党 8.9%
$1,281,412 交易量
$1,281,412 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
55%
林克党
14%
德国选择党
12%
格林党
9%
社民党
9%
BSW
1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 55%
林克党 14%
德国选择党 12.2%
格林党 8.9%
$1,281,412 交易量
$1,281,412 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$8,473 交易量
55%
林克党
$7,843 交易量
14%
德国选择党
$939,714 交易量
12%
格林党
$22,159 交易量
9%
社民党
$280,674 交易量
9%
BSW
$10,787 交易量
1%
自民党
$7,776 交易量
<1%
FW
$4,577 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$1,281,412结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$1,281,412结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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