Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$8,724結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$8,724結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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