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世界·中東

伊朗領導人在2026年底？

Market icon
世界·中東

伊朗領導人在2026年底？

穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 66.7%

雷扎·巴列維 9%

穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫 7.6%

哈桑·魯哈尼 4.6%

Polymarket

$6,606,614 交易量

穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 66.7%

雷扎·巴列維 9%

穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫 7.6%

哈桑·魯哈尼 4.6%

Polymarket

$6,606,614 交易量

穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊

$1,563,990 交易量

67%

雷扎·巴列維

$156,306 交易量

9%

穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫

$173,940 交易量

8%

哈桑·魯哈尼

$282,017 交易量

5%

阿里雷扎·阿拉菲

$780,998 交易量

3%

馬蘇德·佩澤什基安

$252,040 交易量

3%

沒有國家元首

$370,209 交易量

2%

阿巴斯·阿拉格奇

$106,337 交易量

1%

艾哈邁德·瓦希迪

$201,121 交易量

1%

馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德

$53,114 交易量

1%

哈桑·霍梅尼

$733,134 交易量

1%

穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里

$277,759 交易量

<1%

穆罕默德·哈塔米

$247,328 交易量

<1%

賽義德·賈利利

$48,153 交易量

<1%

薩迪克·拉里賈尼

$178,260 交易量

<1%

瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維

$258,480 交易量

<1%

Navid Shomali

$55,698 交易量

<1%

阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊

$77,212 交易量

<1%

哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里

$155,410 交易量

<1%

馬蘇德·拉賈維

$26,559 交易量

<1%

賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安

$35,133 交易量

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$29,259 交易量

<1%

穆斯塔法·希吉里

$22,021 交易量

<1%

阿里·莫塔哈里

$52,782 交易量

<1%

戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾

$37,619 交易量

<1%

穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪

$69,418 交易量

<1%

薩迪格·馬哈蘇利

$49,664 交易量

<1%

穆赫森·阿拉基

$32,656 交易量

<1%

納西爾·侯賽尼

$16,790 交易量

<1%

艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼

$26,345 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's March 8, 2026, appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts—following his father Ali Khamenei's death amid US-Israeli strikes—drives trader consensus at 67% implied probability for his tenure through year-end, reflecting IRGC backing and rapid institutional continuity despite dynastic optics. Recent intelligence reports of his severe injuries and unconsciousness in Qom as of early April introduce volatility, elevating Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid opposition calls for transition and 2026 protests. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7.5% share underscores his hardline role, while a purported defiant statement from Mojtaba on April 18 signals resilience against external pressures and internal health concerns.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$6,606,614
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's March 8, 2026, appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts—following his father Ali Khamenei's death amid US-Israeli strikes—drives trader consensus at 67% implied probability for his tenure through year-end, reflecting IRGC backing and rapid institutional continuity despite dynastic optics. Recent intelligence reports of his severe injuries and unconsciousness in Qom as of early April introduce volatility, elevating Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid opposition calls for transition and 2026 protests. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7.5% share underscores his hardline role, while a purported defiant statement from Mojtaba on April 18 signals resilience against external pressures and internal health concerns.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$6,606,614
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗領導人在2026年底？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊" at 67%, followed by "雷扎·巴列維" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗領導人在2026年底？" has generated $6.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗領導人在2026年底？," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗領導人在2026年底？" is "穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "雷扎·巴列維" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗領導人在2026年底？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.