Mojtaba Khamenei holds dominant trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his rapid selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes. The transition council—comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and Alireza Arafi—facilitated a swift handover amid wartime pressures, with IRGC backing overriding traditional clerical reservations about hereditary succession. Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and alignment with hardline continuity have consolidated his position, while reports of injuries sustained in the initial strikes and limited public appearances have introduced some uncertainty without shifting market pricing. Low-probability alternatives, including exile opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi or other clerics, reflect structural barriers from regime institutions and the absence of viable near-term challengers before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 83.9%
雷扎·巴列維 3.3%
沒有國家元首 2.0%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫 1.6%
$15,935,781 交易量
$15,935,781 交易量
2026-12-31
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
84%
雷扎·巴列維
3%
沒有國家元首
2%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
2%
哈桑·魯哈尼
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
<1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
<1%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
<1%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
<1%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
<1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
<1%
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 83.9%
雷扎·巴列維 3.3%
沒有國家元首 2.0%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫 1.6%
$15,935,781 交易量
$15,935,781 交易量
2026-12-31
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
$2,764,463 交易量
84%
雷扎·巴列維
$321,014 交易量
3%
沒有國家元首
$885,100 交易量
2%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
$562,768 交易量
2%
哈桑·魯哈尼
$670,753 交易量
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$581,711 交易量
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$1,964,987 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$1,175,759 交易量
1%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
$708,022 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
$346,824 交易量
<1%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
$488,155 交易量
<1%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
$461,824 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
$241,121 交易量
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
$669,624 交易量
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
$329,309 交易量
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$86,873 交易量
<1%
Navid Shomali
$139,682 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$93,834 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
$155,241 交易量
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
$154,215 交易量
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
$132,458 交易量
<1%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
$472,226 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
$282,173 交易量
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
$233,462 交易量
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
$172,857 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$177,244 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
$355,483 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$694,282 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$224,395 交易量
<1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
$153,067 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds dominant trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his rapid selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes. The transition council—comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and Alireza Arafi—facilitated a swift handover amid wartime pressures, with IRGC backing overriding traditional clerical reservations about hereditary succession. Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and alignment with hardline continuity have consolidated his position, while reports of injuries sustained in the initial strikes and limited public appearances have introduced some uncertainty without shifting market pricing. Low-probability alternatives, including exile opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi or other clerics, reflect structural barriers from regime institutions and the absence of viable near-term challengers before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$15,935,781結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds dominant trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his rapid selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes. The transition council—comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and Alireza Arafi—facilitated a swift handover amid wartime pressures, with IRGC backing overriding traditional clerical reservations about hereditary succession. Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and alignment with hardline continuity have consolidated his position, while reports of injuries sustained in the initial strikes and limited public appearances have introduced some uncertainty without shifting market pricing. Low-probability alternatives, including exile opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi or other clerics, reflect structural barriers from regime institutions and the absence of viable near-term challengers before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$15,935,781結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds dominant trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his rapid selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes. The transition council—comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and Alireza Arafi—facilitated a swift handover amid wartime pressures, with IRGC backing overriding traditional clerical reservations about hereditary succession. Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and alignment with hardline continuity have consolidated his position, while reports of injuries sustained in the initial strikes and limited public appearances have introduced some uncertainty without shifting market pricing. Low-probability alternatives, including exile opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi or other clerics, reflect structural barriers from regime institutions and the absence of viable near-term challengers before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions