Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 72.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its security apparatus containing unrest amid the sixth week of war with Israel and the US as of early April. US and Israeli strikes degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, per recent assessments, while economic strains from conflict and sanctions prompted intensified crackdowns, including arrests and executions to preempt dissent. Pro-regime rallies and Basij intimidation have suppressed protests, with no confirmed mass defections or leadership fractures despite earlier January unrest cycles. This resilience, against historical patterns of durable security states, outweighs escalation risks, though cease-fire talks or internal shocks could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$13,136,573 交易量
$13,136,573 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$13,136,573 交易量
$13,136,573 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 72.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its security apparatus containing unrest amid the sixth week of war with Israel and the US as of early April. US and Israeli strikes degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, per recent assessments, while economic strains from conflict and sanctions prompted intensified crackdowns, including arrests and executions to preempt dissent. Pro-regime rallies and Basij intimidation have suppressed protests, with no confirmed mass defections or leadership fractures despite earlier January unrest cycles. This resilience, against historical patterns of durable security states, outweighs escalation risks, though cease-fire talks or internal shocks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$13,136,573結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 72.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its security apparatus containing unrest amid the sixth week of war with Israel and the US as of early April. US and Israeli strikes degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, per recent assessments, while economic strains from conflict and sanctions prompted intensified crackdowns, including arrests and executions to preempt dissent. Pro-regime rallies and Basij intimidation have suppressed protests, with no confirmed mass defections or leadership fractures despite earlier January unrest cycles. This resilience, against historical patterns of durable security states, outweighs escalation risks, though cease-fire talks or internal shocks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$13,136,576結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 72.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its security apparatus containing unrest amid the sixth week of war with Israel and the US as of early April. US and Israeli strikes degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, per recent assessments, while economic strains from conflict and sanctions prompted intensified crackdowns, including arrests and executions to preempt dissent. Pro-regime rallies and Basij intimidation have suppressed protests, with no confirmed mass defections or leadership fractures despite earlier January unrest cycles. This resilience, against historical patterns of durable security states, outweighs escalation risks, though cease-fire talks or internal shocks could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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