**Following the US-Israeli strikes initiating the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a subsequent shaky ceasefire, Iranian leadership has demonstrated resilience by replacing slain military commanders, intensifying crackdowns on dissent amid 2025-2026 protests sparked by economic turmoil—IMF projecting 6.1% contraction—and exploiting the truce to reconstitute missile and drone stockpiles, as detailed in a May 1 assessment.** US intelligence affirms no imminent collapse risk, while prolonged conflict has bolstered regime popularity domestically per analysts. Khamenei succession planning further signals institutional continuity. Traders price "No" at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on these stabilizing factors despite vulnerabilities like renewed escalation or unrest surges before 2027. (112 words)
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$17,650,695 交易量
$17,650,695 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$17,650,695 交易量
$17,650,695 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Following the US-Israeli strikes initiating the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a subsequent shaky ceasefire, Iranian leadership has demonstrated resilience by replacing slain military commanders, intensifying crackdowns on dissent amid 2025-2026 protests sparked by economic turmoil—IMF projecting 6.1% contraction—and exploiting the truce to reconstitute missile and drone stockpiles, as detailed in a May 1 assessment.** US intelligence affirms no imminent collapse risk, while prolonged conflict has bolstered regime popularity domestically per analysts. Khamenei succession planning further signals institutional continuity. Traders price "No" at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on these stabilizing factors despite vulnerabilities like renewed escalation or unrest surges before 2027. (112 words)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$17,650,695結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Following the US-Israeli strikes initiating the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a subsequent shaky ceasefire, Iranian leadership has demonstrated resilience by replacing slain military commanders, intensifying crackdowns on dissent amid 2025-2026 protests sparked by economic turmoil—IMF projecting 6.1% contraction—and exploiting the truce to reconstitute missile and drone stockpiles, as detailed in a May 1 assessment.** US intelligence affirms no imminent collapse risk, while prolonged conflict has bolstered regime popularity domestically per analysts. Khamenei succession planning further signals institutional continuity. Traders price "No" at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on these stabilizing factors despite vulnerabilities like renewed escalation or unrest surges before 2027. (112 words)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,650,695結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Following the US-Israeli strikes initiating the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a subsequent shaky ceasefire, Iranian leadership has demonstrated resilience by replacing slain military commanders, intensifying crackdowns on dissent amid 2025-2026 protests sparked by economic turmoil—IMF projecting 6.1% contraction—and exploiting the truce to reconstitute missile and drone stockpiles, as detailed in a May 1 assessment.** US intelligence affirms no imminent collapse risk, while prolonged conflict has bolstered regime popularity domestically per analysts. Khamenei succession planning further signals institutional continuity. Traders price "No" at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on these stabilizing factors despite vulnerabilities like renewed escalation or unrest surges before 2027. (112 words)
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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