Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to "No" for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent reports indicate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has sidelined reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, rejecting his appointments and assuming de facto control over critical state functions under wartime conditions, signaling hardliner consolidation rather than fragmentation. US intelligence assessments affirm government stability despite Israeli-US strikes on commanders, economic protests, and leadership uncertainties around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Absent mass defections, widespread uprisings, or coup signals, core structures like the Guardian Council and IRGC retain sovereign power, with historical patterns underscoring barriers to rapid overthrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$25,387,434 交易量
$25,387,434 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$25,387,434 交易量
$25,387,434 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to "No" for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent reports indicate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has sidelined reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, rejecting his appointments and assuming de facto control over critical state functions under wartime conditions, signaling hardliner consolidation rather than fragmentation. US intelligence assessments affirm government stability despite Israeli-US strikes on commanders, economic protests, and leadership uncertainties around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Absent mass defections, widespread uprisings, or coup signals, core structures like the Guardian Council and IRGC retain sovereign power, with historical patterns underscoring barriers to rapid overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$25,387,434結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to "No" for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent reports indicate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has sidelined reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, rejecting his appointments and assuming de facto control over critical state functions under wartime conditions, signaling hardliner consolidation rather than fragmentation. US intelligence assessments affirm government stability despite Israeli-US strikes on commanders, economic protests, and leadership uncertainties around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Absent mass defections, widespread uprisings, or coup signals, core structures like the Guardian Council and IRGC retain sovereign power, with historical patterns underscoring barriers to rapid overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$25,387,434結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to "No" for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent reports indicate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has sidelined reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, rejecting his appointments and assuming de facto control over critical state functions under wartime conditions, signaling hardliner consolidation rather than fragmentation. US intelligence assessments affirm government stability despite Israeli-US strikes on commanders, economic protests, and leadership uncertainties around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Absent mass defections, widespread uprisings, or coup signals, core structures like the Guardian Council and IRGC retain sovereign power, with historical patterns underscoring barriers to rapid overthrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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