美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？

Name: 美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？
Start: 2026-03-11T20:55:35.170Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？ — 討論

AlAhmeda · 2026-03-11T20:55:35.170Z

關於美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

地緣政治·霍爾木茲海峽

美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？

$2,743,263 交易量

2026-04-15

4月15日

$299,941 交易量

4月30日

$389,399 交易量

18%

$2,743,263 交易量

4月15日

$299,941 交易量

4月30日

$389,399 交易量

18%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4月30日" at 18%, followed by "4月15日" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" is "4月30日" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4月15日" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $2.7 million traded on “美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 18¢ for "4月30日" in the "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 18% chance that "4月30日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 18¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 82¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" market has an active community of 122 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？

美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？

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盤口背景

評論 (122)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "美國護送商船通過霍爾木茲… ？" prediction market?

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What does a price of 18¢ for "4月30日" mean?

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