Amid escalating tensions in the US-Israel-Iran war since early March 2026, Iran has restricted the Strait of Hormuz, conducting attacks on over 20 commercial vessels while permitting selective, tolled transits for ships from non-hostile nations like China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye. No verified warship passages by any country have occurred in the past month, with daily traffic plummeting from 138 vessels to 1-2 amid threats to US and allied naval forces. Western coalitions, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and Canada, issued joint statements affirming freedom of navigation, as France seeks partners for a potential mission and the UK prepares to lead efforts. President Trump extended a reopening deadline to April 6, heightening risks of military escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs by April 30 that could prompt warship deployments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
$37,637 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
美國
46%
United Kingdom
17%
France
7%
India
3%
Japan
3%
Pakistan
3%
Italy
3%
Greece
2%
Canada
2%
Germany
2%
Netherlands
2%
$37,637 交易量
美國
$9,005 交易量
46%
United Kingdom
$4,284 交易量
17%
France
$1,640 交易量
7%
India
$4,884 交易量
3%
Japan
$3,266 交易量
3%
Pakistan
$2,638 交易量
3%
Italy
$2,284 交易量
3%
Greece
$3,230 交易量
2%
Canada
$1,292 交易量
2%
Germany
$3,484 交易量
2%
Netherlands
$1,630 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid escalating tensions in the US-Israel-Iran war since early March 2026, Iran has restricted the Strait of Hormuz, conducting attacks on over 20 commercial vessels while permitting selective, tolled transits for ships from non-hostile nations like China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye. No verified warship passages by any country have occurred in the past month, with daily traffic plummeting from 138 vessels to 1-2 amid threats to US and allied naval forces. Western coalitions, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and Canada, issued joint statements affirming freedom of navigation, as France seeks partners for a potential mission and the UK prepares to lead efforts. President Trump extended a reopening deadline to April 6, heightening risks of military escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs by April 30 that could prompt warship deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
交易量
$37,637結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid escalating tensions in the US-Israel-Iran war since early March 2026, Iran has restricted the Strait of Hormuz, conducting attacks on over 20 commercial vessels while permitting selective, tolled transits for ships from non-hostile nations like China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye. No verified warship passages by any country have occurred in the past month, with daily traffic plummeting from 138 vessels to 1-2 amid threats to US and allied naval forces. Western coalitions, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and Canada, issued joint statements affirming freedom of navigation, as France seeks partners for a potential mission and the UK prepares to lead efforts. President Trump extended a reopening deadline to April 6, heightening risks of military escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs by April 30 that could prompt warship deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$37,637結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating tensions in the US-Israel-Iran war since early March 2026, Iran has restricted the Strait of Hormuz, conducting attacks on over 20 commercial vessels while permitting selective, tolled transits for ships from non-hostile nations like China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye. No verified warship passages by any country have occurred in the past month, with daily traffic plummeting from 138 vessels to 1-2 amid threats to US and allied naval forces. Western coalitions, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and Canada, issued joint statements affirming freedom of navigation, as France seeks partners for a potential mission and the UK prepares to lead efforts. President Trump extended a reopening deadline to April 6, heightening risks of military escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs by April 30 that could prompt warship deployments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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