The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors censured Iran on November 21 for non-cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites and unexplained uranium traces, prompting Tehran to vow installation of advanced centrifuges at Fordow and a new enrichment facility. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium now exceeds 400 kilograms at 60% purity per latest IAEA data, far beyond JCPOA limits, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or surrender proposals amid stalled indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman. Incoming Trump administration signals potential "maximum pressure" sanctions revival, while Israel-Iran shadow war escalates risks. Traders monitor UN Security Council referral threats and any pre-inauguration diplomacy for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
$18,855 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
12%
June 30
26%
December 31
35%
$18,855 交易量
April 30
$380 交易量
12%
June 30
$20 交易量
26%
December 31
$18,455 交易量
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors censured Iran on November 21 for non-cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites and unexplained uranium traces, prompting Tehran to vow installation of advanced centrifuges at Fordow and a new enrichment facility. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium now exceeds 400 kilograms at 60% purity per latest IAEA data, far beyond JCPOA limits, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or surrender proposals amid stalled indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman. Incoming Trump administration signals potential "maximum pressure" sanctions revival, while Israel-Iran shadow war escalates risks. Traders monitor UN Security Council referral threats and any pre-inauguration diplomacy for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$18,855結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors censured Iran on November 21 for non-cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites and unexplained uranium traces, prompting Tehran to vow installation of advanced centrifuges at Fordow and a new enrichment facility. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium now exceeds 400 kilograms at 60% purity per latest IAEA data, far beyond JCPOA limits, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or surrender proposals amid stalled indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman. Incoming Trump administration signals potential "maximum pressure" sanctions revival, while Israel-Iran shadow war escalates risks. Traders monitor UN Security Council referral threats and any pre-inauguration diplomacy for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$18,855結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors censured Iran on November 21 for non-cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites and unexplained uranium traces, prompting Tehran to vow installation of advanced centrifuges at Fordow and a new enrichment facility. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium now exceeds 400 kilograms at 60% purity per latest IAEA data, far beyond JCPOA limits, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or surrender proposals amid stalled indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman. Incoming Trump administration signals potential "maximum pressure" sanctions revival, while Israel-Iran shadow war escalates risks. Traders monitor UN Security Council referral threats and any pre-inauguration diplomacy for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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