Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 28.8%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes on Iran amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, alongside intensified operations in Lebanon since early March against Hezbollah, routine strikes in Syria including a March 20 attack on southern military targets, and retaliatory actions in Yemen following Houthi missile barrages as recent as April 2. The tight race hinges on attribution for US-Israeli hits in Iraq against Iran-backed PMF militias, which could push to five, while recent strikes killing seven in southern Lebanon yesterday underscore ongoing multi-front escalation. De-escalation signals, like President Trump's April 1 statement on nearing war objectives, or diplomatic mediation by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, could cap at four; fresh Houthi or Hezbollah attacks risk adding Iraq or others before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4 37.9%
5 29.4%
6 12.6%
3 11.8%
$6,306,454 交易量
$6,306,454 交易量
2026-12-31
3
12%
4
38%
5
29%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15以上
<1%
4 37.9%
5 29.4%
6 12.6%
3 11.8%
$6,306,454 交易量
$6,306,454 交易量
2026-12-31
3
$1,892,198 交易量
12%
4
$1,140,303 交易量
38%
5
$452,922 交易量
29%
6
$626,190 交易量
13%
7
$584,701 交易量
3%
8
$499,421 交易量
2%
9
$198,722 交易量
1%
10
$375,395 交易量
1%
11
$89,589 交易量
1%
12
$59,427 交易量
<1%
13
$130,479 交易量
<1%
14
$97,367 交易量
<1%
15以上
$34,158 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 28.8%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes on Iran amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, alongside intensified operations in Lebanon since early March against Hezbollah, routine strikes in Syria including a March 20 attack on southern military targets, and retaliatory actions in Yemen following Houthi missile barrages as recent as April 2. The tight race hinges on attribution for US-Israeli hits in Iraq against Iran-backed PMF militias, which could push to five, while recent strikes killing seven in southern Lebanon yesterday underscore ongoing multi-front escalation. De-escalation signals, like President Trump's April 1 statement on nearing war objectives, or diplomatic mediation by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, could cap at four; fresh Houthi or Hezbollah attacks risk adding Iraq or others before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
交易量
$6,306,454結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 28.8%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes on Iran amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, alongside intensified operations in Lebanon since early March against Hezbollah, routine strikes in Syria including a March 20 attack on southern military targets, and retaliatory actions in Yemen following Houthi missile barrages as recent as April 2. The tight race hinges on attribution for US-Israeli hits in Iraq against Iran-backed PMF militias, which could push to five, while recent strikes killing seven in southern Lebanon yesterday underscore ongoing multi-front escalation. De-escalation signals, like President Trump's April 1 statement on nearing war objectives, or diplomatic mediation by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, could cap at four; fresh Houthi or Hezbollah attacks risk adding Iraq or others before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,306,454結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 28.8%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes on Iran amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, alongside intensified operations in Lebanon since early March against Hezbollah, routine strikes in Syria including a March 20 attack on southern military targets, and retaliatory actions in Yemen following Houthi missile barrages as recent as April 2. The tight race hinges on attribution for US-Israeli hits in Iraq against Iran-backed PMF militias, which could push to five, while recent strikes killing seven in southern Lebanon yesterday underscore ongoing multi-front escalation. De-escalation signals, like President Trump's April 1 statement on nearing war objectives, or diplomatic mediation by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, could cap at four; fresh Houthi or Hezbollah attacks risk adding Iraq or others before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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