Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, traders price four countries at 38% and five at 30.4%, reflecting confirmed Israeli strikes on Iran, Lebanon (multiple Hezbollah-targeted operations in late March), and Syria (southern targets responding to Druze clashes on March 20). This keeps the race tight as Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct missile attacks on Israel on March 28-29, raising odds of retaliatory strikes there for a fourth target, while potential involvement of Iraq-based militias or Gulf states could push to five. Ceasefire negotiations or proxy de-escalation might limit further expansion before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4 38.0%
5 30.4%
6 12.8%
3 12.0%
$6,347,163 交易量
$6,347,163 交易量
2026-12-31
3
12%
4
38%
5
30%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15以上
<1%
4 38.0%
5 30.4%
6 12.8%
3 12.0%
$6,347,163 交易量
$6,347,163 交易量
2026-12-31
3
$1,892,579 交易量
12%
4
$1,140,311 交易量
38%
5
$491,271 交易量
30%
6
$626,342 交易量
13%
7
$584,733 交易量
3%
8
$499,429 交易量
2%
9
$198,729 交易量
1%
10
$375,403 交易量
1%
11
$89,607 交易量
1%
12
$59,435 交易量
<1%
13
$130,826 交易量
<1%
14
$98,751 交易量
<1%
15以上
$34,166 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, traders price four countries at 38% and five at 30.4%, reflecting confirmed Israeli strikes on Iran, Lebanon (multiple Hezbollah-targeted operations in late March), and Syria (southern targets responding to Druze clashes on March 20). This keeps the race tight as Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct missile attacks on Israel on March 28-29, raising odds of retaliatory strikes there for a fourth target, while potential involvement of Iraq-based militias or Gulf states could push to five. Ceasefire negotiations or proxy de-escalation might limit further expansion before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
交易量
$6,347,163結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, traders price four countries at 38% and five at 30.4%, reflecting confirmed Israeli strikes on Iran, Lebanon (multiple Hezbollah-targeted operations in late March), and Syria (southern targets responding to Druze clashes on March 20). This keeps the race tight as Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct missile attacks on Israel on March 28-29, raising odds of retaliatory strikes there for a fourth target, while potential involvement of Iraq-based militias or Gulf states could push to five. Ceasefire negotiations or proxy de-escalation might limit further expansion before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,347,163結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, traders price four countries at 38% and five at 30.4%, reflecting confirmed Israeli strikes on Iran, Lebanon (multiple Hezbollah-targeted operations in late March), and Syria (southern targets responding to Druze clashes on March 20). This keeps the race tight as Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct missile attacks on Israel on March 28-29, raising odds of retaliatory strikes there for a fourth target, while potential involvement of Iraq-based militias or Gulf states could push to five. Ceasefire negotiations or proxy de-escalation might limit further expansion before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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