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地緣政治·以色列x伊朗

哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？

icon for 哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？
地緣政治·以色列x伊朗

哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？

Ended: 4月 30

Ended: 4月 30

$3,651,056 交易量

2026-04-30
Polymarket

$3,651,056 交易量

Polymarket

英國

$280,515 交易量

否

約旦

$34,668 交易量

否

加拿大

$46,477 交易量

否

卡達

$56,438 交易量

否

沙烏地阿拉伯

$604,280 交易量

否

科威特

$168,726 交易量

否

阿聯酋

$1,848,712 交易量

否

法國

$211,561 交易量

否

土耳其

$88,956 交易量

否

德國

$133,140 交易量

否

巴林

$57,368 交易量

否

阿曼

$33,086 交易量

否

任何歐盟國家

$87,130 交易量

否

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated major airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing conflict that defines trader consensus on additional countries joining by April 30. No new coalition partners like UAE or Saudi Arabia conducted verifiable strikes amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire from early April and stalled nuclear talks in Islamabad. Late April developments, including US Central Command's April 30 briefing to President Trump on fresh strike options for Strait of Hormuz infrastructure and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's warning of imminent resumption, heightened tensions without prompting broader involvement. The US War Powers Resolution 60-day clock expired May 1, pressuring congressional authorization amid Hormuz blockade disputes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,651,056
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated major airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing conflict that defines trader consensus on additional countries joining by April 30. No new coalition partners like UAE or Saudi Arabia conducted verifiable strikes amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire from early April and stalled nuclear talks in Islamabad. Late April developments, including US Central Command's April 30 briefing to President Trump on fresh strike options for Strait of Hormuz infrastructure and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's warning of imminent resumption, heightened tensions without prompting broader involvement. The US War Powers Resolution 60-day clock expired May 1, pressuring congressional authorization amid Hormuz blockade disputes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,651,056
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "英國" at 0%, followed by "約旦" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？" has generated $3.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？" is "英國" at just 0%, with "約旦" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "哪些國家將在4月30日前對伊朗採取軍事行動？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.