Trader consensus reflects low expectations for direct Iranian strikes on commercial shipping, driven by Iran's reliance on Houthi proxies for Red Sea disruptions rather than overt naval attacks. The most recent major development was Iran's seizure of the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries container ship on April 13 in the Strait of Hormuz, framed as retaliation for an Israeli strike, but no missile or drone hits on vessels have been verified since. Houthi attacks—now exceeding 70 incidents—continue to reroute 90% of affected traffic around Africa, inflating costs, while US-UK coalition airstrikes on Yemeni targets escalated in late May. Watch for Israeli responses to Iranian threats or US carrier deployments, which could trigger direct escalation before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
18%
April 2
19%
April 3
19%
April 4
20%
April 5
25%
April 6
23%
April 7
23%
April 8
42%
April 9
42%
April 10
35%
$13 交易量
April 1
$1 交易量
18%
April 2
$1 交易量
19%
April 3
$1 交易量
19%
April 4
$1 交易量
20%
April 5
$1 交易量
25%
April 6
$1 交易量
23%
April 7
$3 交易量
23%
April 8
$1 交易量
42%
April 9
$1 交易量
42%
April 10
$1 交易量
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
交易量
$13結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$13結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects low expectations for direct Iranian strikes on commercial shipping, driven by Iran's reliance on Houthi proxies for Red Sea disruptions rather than overt naval attacks. The most recent major development was Iran's seizure of the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries container ship on April 13 in the Strait of Hormuz, framed as retaliation for an Israeli strike, but no missile or drone hits on vessels have been verified since. Houthi attacks—now exceeding 70 incidents—continue to reroute 90% of affected traffic around Africa, inflating costs, while US-UK coalition airstrikes on Yemeni targets escalated in late May. Watch for Israeli responses to Iranian threats or US carrier deployments, which could trigger direct escalation before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions