US-Israeli airstrikes continued on April 2 targeting Iranian military bases, missile sites, and infrastructure beyond strict military assets, as Iran retaliated with missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states including the UAE. Now over a month into the conflict sparked by February 28 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, US officials report significant degradation of Iran's air defenses, navy, and missile forces—CENTCOM claims over 90% reduction in some capabilities—yet roughly half of Tehran's missile launchers and thousands of drones remain operational. President Trump indicated operations could extend 2-3 more weeks without a Strait of Hormuz reopening plan, amid rising oil prices and a pending UN Security Council vote on naval action. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent Iranian counterattacks and unresolved regional escalation risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$319,659 交易量
2026-03-31
March 30
<1%
4月15日
13%
4月30日
38%
5月31日
75%
6月30日
80%
$319,659 交易量
March 30
$25,561 交易量
<1%
4月15日
$33,261 交易量
13%
4月30日
$18,360 交易量
38%
5月31日
$10,737 交易量
75%
6月30日
$9,068 交易量
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continued on April 2 targeting Iranian military bases, missile sites, and infrastructure beyond strict military assets, as Iran retaliated with missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states including the UAE. Now over a month into the conflict sparked by February 28 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, US officials report significant degradation of Iran's air defenses, navy, and missile forces—CENTCOM claims over 90% reduction in some capabilities—yet roughly half of Tehran's missile launchers and thousands of drones remain operational. President Trump indicated operations could extend 2-3 more weeks without a Strait of Hormuz reopening plan, amid rising oil prices and a pending UN Security Council vote on naval action. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent Iranian counterattacks and unresolved regional escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$319,659結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continued on April 2 targeting Iranian military bases, missile sites, and infrastructure beyond strict military assets, as Iran retaliated with missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states including the UAE. Now over a month into the conflict sparked by February 28 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, US officials report significant degradation of Iran's air defenses, navy, and missile forces—CENTCOM claims over 90% reduction in some capabilities—yet roughly half of Tehran's missile launchers and thousands of drones remain operational. President Trump indicated operations could extend 2-3 more weeks without a Strait of Hormuz reopening plan, amid rising oil prices and a pending UN Security Council vote on naval action. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent Iranian counterattacks and unresolved regional escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$319,659結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes continued on April 2 targeting Iranian military bases, missile sites, and infrastructure beyond strict military assets, as Iran retaliated with missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states including the UAE. Now over a month into the conflict sparked by February 28 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, US officials report significant degradation of Iran's air defenses, navy, and missile forces—CENTCOM claims over 90% reduction in some capabilities—yet roughly half of Tehran's missile launchers and thousands of drones remain operational. President Trump indicated operations could extend 2-3 more weeks without a Strait of Hormuz reopening plan, amid rising oil prices and a pending UN Security Council vote on naval action. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent Iranian counterattacks and unresolved regional escalation risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions