US trader consensus on a potential US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, now implying 56.5% for Yes, reflects escalating military deployments and President Trump's recent threats amid the US-Israel conflict with Tehran entering its 35th day as of April 3. Key drivers include the arrival of 2,500 US Marines in the region, Trump's warnings to target Iranian bridges, power plants, and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—deadline extended to April 6—and Iran's vows of massive mobilization against any invasion. Ongoing airstrikes and stalled diplomatic talks have heightened risks, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations, with historical precedents like Iraq underscoring barriers to full-scale operations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$2,484,459 交易量
$2,484,459 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$2,484,459 交易量
$2,484,459 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US trader consensus on a potential US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, now implying 56.5% for Yes, reflects escalating military deployments and President Trump's recent threats amid the US-Israel conflict with Tehran entering its 35th day as of April 3. Key drivers include the arrival of 2,500 US Marines in the region, Trump's warnings to target Iranian bridges, power plants, and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—deadline extended to April 6—and Iran's vows of massive mobilization against any invasion. Ongoing airstrikes and stalled diplomatic talks have heightened risks, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations, with historical precedents like Iraq underscoring barriers to full-scale operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$2,484,459結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US trader consensus on a potential US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, now implying 56.5% for Yes, reflects escalating military deployments and President Trump's recent threats amid the US-Israel conflict with Tehran entering its 35th day as of April 3. Key drivers include the arrival of 2,500 US Marines in the region, Trump's warnings to target Iranian bridges, power plants, and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—deadline extended to April 6—and Iran's vows of massive mobilization against any invasion. Ongoing airstrikes and stalled diplomatic talks have heightened risks, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations, with historical precedents like Iraq underscoring barriers to full-scale operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$2,484,469結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US trader consensus on a potential US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, now implying 56.5% for Yes, reflects escalating military deployments and President Trump's recent threats amid the US-Israel conflict with Tehran entering its 35th day as of April 3. Key drivers include the arrival of 2,500 US Marines in the region, Trump's warnings to target Iranian bridges, power plants, and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—deadline extended to April 6—and Iran's vows of massive mobilization against any invasion. Ongoing airstrikes and stalled diplomatic talks have heightened risks, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations, with historical precedents like Iraq underscoring barriers to full-scale operations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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