Skip to main content
icon for 美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？
地緣政治·特朗普

美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？

icon for 美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？
地緣政治·特朗普

美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？

$367,046,745 交易量

Polymarket

$367,046,745 交易量

Polymarket

1月31日？

$571,796 交易量

否

2月28日

$420,868 交易量

否

3月1日

$160,345 交易量

否

3月3日

$921,360 交易量

否

3月7日

$0 交易量

否

3月14日

$0 交易量

否

3月31日

$73,927,762 交易量

否

4月30日

$269,049,107 交易量

是

12月31日

$21,995,506 交易量

是

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$367,046,745
市場開放時間
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$367,046,745
市場開放時間
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4月30日" at 100%, followed by "12月31日" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" has generated $367 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" is "4月30日" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12月31日" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.