Market icon
地緣政治·特朗普

美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？

Market icon
地緣政治·特朗普

美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？

$99,943,552 交易量

2026-03-31
Polymarket

$99,943,552 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$70,847,933 交易量

<1%

4月30日

$18,439,725 交易量

62%

12月31日

$8,581,893 交易量

71%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent bunker-buster attacks on the Isfahan nuclear site two days ago, have defined the conflict since late February 2026, when operations began following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. President Trump stated yesterday that core objectives are nearing completion within a four-to-five-week timeline, amid reports of fresh Iranian counterattacks and thousands of additional US Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and elite units deploying to regional bases like Djibouti for potential ground operations. No US ground forces have entered Iran to date, but this force concentration signals escalation risks, with traders monitoring Trump's upcoming ceasefire address, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and diplomatic signals from Tehran for invasion triggers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$99,943,552
市場開放時間
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

有爭議

已提議結果: 否

有爭議

最終稽核

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent bunker-buster attacks on the Isfahan nuclear site two days ago, have defined the conflict since late February 2026, when operations began following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. President Trump stated yesterday that core objectives are nearing completion within a four-to-five-week timeline, amid reports of fresh Iranian counterattacks and thousands of additional US Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and elite units deploying to regional bases like Djibouti for potential ground operations. No US ground forces have entered Iran to date, but this force concentration signals escalation risks, with traders monitoring Trump's upcoming ceasefire address, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and diplomatic signals from Tehran for invasion triggers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$99,943,552
市場開放時間
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

有爭議

已提議結果: 否

有爭議

最終稽核

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 71%, followed by "4月30日" at 62%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" has generated $99.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" is "12月31日" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4月30日" at 62%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.