The current trader consensus around a 90.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through early 2027 stems from his status as the elected incumbent serving a full four-year term that began in January 2025. No active congressional removal proceedings, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or verified health developments have emerged in recent months to alter that trajectory. Midterm election dynamics scheduled for 2026 and routine cabinet confirmations continue to shape legislative priorities without creating near-term vacancy risks. Historical patterns of presidential continuity and the absence of qualifying triggers for early departure, such as resignation announcements or incapacitation findings, align with the observed market pricing. Late-breaking events like acute health issues or major scandals remain possible but have not materialized in verifiable form to shift probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$8,544,878 交易量
$8,544,878 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$8,544,878 交易量
$8,544,878 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The current trader consensus around a 90.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through early 2027 stems from his status as the elected incumbent serving a full four-year term that began in January 2025. No active congressional removal proceedings, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or verified health developments have emerged in recent months to alter that trajectory. Midterm election dynamics scheduled for 2026 and routine cabinet confirmations continue to shape legislative priorities without creating near-term vacancy risks. Historical patterns of presidential continuity and the absence of qualifying triggers for early departure, such as resignation announcements or incapacitation findings, align with the observed market pricing. Late-breaking events like acute health issues or major scandals remain possible but have not materialized in verifiable form to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
交易量
$8,544,878結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The current trader consensus around a 90.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through early 2027 stems from his status as the elected incumbent serving a full four-year term that began in January 2025. No active congressional removal proceedings, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or verified health developments have emerged in recent months to alter that trajectory. Midterm election dynamics scheduled for 2026 and routine cabinet confirmations continue to shape legislative priorities without creating near-term vacancy risks. Historical patterns of presidential continuity and the absence of qualifying triggers for early departure, such as resignation announcements or incapacitation findings, align with the observed market pricing. Late-breaking events like acute health issues or major scandals remain possible but have not materialized in verifiable form to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$8,544,878結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The current trader consensus around a 90.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through early 2027 stems from his status as the elected incumbent serving a full four-year term that began in January 2025. No active congressional removal proceedings, successful legal challenges to eligibility, or verified health developments have emerged in recent months to alter that trajectory. Midterm election dynamics scheduled for 2026 and routine cabinet confirmations continue to shape legislative priorities without creating near-term vacancy risks. Historical patterns of presidential continuity and the absence of qualifying triggers for early departure, such as resignation announcements or incapacitation findings, align with the observed market pricing. Late-breaking events like acute health issues or major scandals remain possible but have not materialized in verifiable form to shift probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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