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政治·特朗普

誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？

Kevin Warsh 96.8%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

米歇爾·鮑曼 <1%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$18,699,215 交易量

Kevin Warsh 96.8%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

米歇爾·鮑曼 <1%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$18,699,215 交易量

Kevin Warsh

$2,754,245 交易量

97%

Judy Shelton

$8,425,552 交易量

2%

Kevin Hassett

$684,445 交易量

<1%

克里斯多福·沃勒

$600,217 交易量

<1%

傑羅姆·鮑威爾

$834,809 交易量

<1%

史蒂芬·米蘭

$632,314 交易量

<1%

Scott Bessent

$2,019,925 交易量

<1%

Rick Reider

$661,902 交易量

<1%

米歇爾·鮑曼

$2,087,462 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair, transmitted to the Senate on March 4, drives his 96.8% trader consensus on Polymarket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid a Republican Senate majority favoring swift confirmation ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Powell has pledged to remain in the role until a successor is confirmed, minimizing interim uncertainty. The Senate Banking Committee's scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for the week of April 13 further bolsters expectations, aligning with historical patterns of high confirmation rates for presidential Fed nominees. Realistic challenges include senatorial holds—such as from GOP Sen. Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell—or Democratic opposition from figures like Elizabeth Warren, potentially delaying or derailing approval via procedural hurdles.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,699,215
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair, transmitted to the Senate on March 4, drives his 96.8% trader consensus on Polymarket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid a Republican Senate majority favoring swift confirmation ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Powell has pledged to remain in the role until a successor is confirmed, minimizing interim uncertainty. The Senate Banking Committee's scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for the week of April 13 further bolsters expectations, aligning with historical patterns of high confirmation rates for presidential Fed nominees. Realistic challenges include senatorial holds—such as from GOP Sen. Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell—or Democratic opposition from figures like Elizabeth Warren, potentially delaying or derailing approval via procedural hurdles.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,699,215
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 97%, followed by "Judy Shelton" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" has generated $18.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" is "Kevin Warsh" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Judy Shelton" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.