Polymarket traders have priced a 57.9% implied probability for zero basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026—keeping the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%—driven by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes from Middle East conflicts and an oil shock, alongside April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3%. The April 29-30 FOMC held rates steady amid hawkish dissents from three officials open to hikes, diverging from the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate of 3.4%; brokerages like Barclays and Wells Fargo now align with no easing forecasts. Q1 GDP growth of 2.0% underscores economic strength reducing cut urgency, with tomorrow's April CPI release a key near-term catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0（0個基點） 57.9%
1（25個基點） 20%
2（50個基點） 12%
3次（75個基點） 6%
$24,823,674 交易量
$24,823,674 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
58%
1（25個基點）
20%
2（50個基點）
12%
3次（75個基點）
6%
4（100 個基點）
2%
5次（125個基點）
1%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
<1%
0（0個基點） 57.9%
1（25個基點） 20%
2（50個基點） 12%
3次（75個基點） 6%
$24,823,674 交易量
$24,823,674 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$3,966,952 交易量
58%
1（25個基點）
$1,184,548 交易量
20%
2（50個基點）
$1,147,837 交易量
12%
3次（75個基點）
$1,031,327 交易量
6%
4（100 個基點）
$1,103,565 交易量
2%
5次（125個基點）
$1,325,671 交易量
1%
6次（150個基點）
$2,368,839 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$1,051,874 交易量
1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,610,716 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$2,298,941 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$2,615,582 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$3,099,939 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$2,018,096 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders have priced a 57.9% implied probability for zero basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026—keeping the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%—driven by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes from Middle East conflicts and an oil shock, alongside April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3%. The April 29-30 FOMC held rates steady amid hawkish dissents from three officials open to hikes, diverging from the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate of 3.4%; brokerages like Barclays and Wells Fargo now align with no easing forecasts. Q1 GDP growth of 2.0% underscores economic strength reducing cut urgency, with tomorrow's April CPI release a key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$24,823,674結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders have priced a 57.9% implied probability for zero basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026—keeping the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%—driven by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes from Middle East conflicts and an oil shock, alongside April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3%. The April 29-30 FOMC held rates steady amid hawkish dissents from three officials open to hikes, diverging from the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate of 3.4%; brokerages like Barclays and Wells Fargo now align with no easing forecasts. Q1 GDP growth of 2.0% underscores economic strength reducing cut urgency, with tomorrow's April CPI release a key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$24,823,674結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders have priced a 57.9% implied probability for zero basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026—keeping the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%—driven by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes from Middle East conflicts and an oil shock, alongside April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3%. The April 29-30 FOMC held rates steady amid hawkish dissents from three officials open to hikes, diverging from the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate of 3.4%; brokerages like Barclays and Wells Fargo now align with no easing forecasts. Q1 GDP growth of 2.0% underscores economic strength reducing cut urgency, with tomorrow's April CPI release a key near-term catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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