Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between zero (30.9%) and one (27.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid a spiking oil shock from geopolitical tensions, which has inflated near-term CPI expectations and eroded cut probabilities in fed funds futures—now pricing an end-2026 rate near 3.59%. The Fed's dot plot median still envisions one cut, but February's weak nonfarm payrolls (-92,000) signal labor softening, counterbalanced by resilient GDP growth. This deadlock hinges on March CPI (due April 10) and payrolls data ahead of the April 29-30 FOMC, where policy hold odds exceed 94%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0（0個基點） 30.9%
1（25個基點） 28%
2（50個基點） 21%
3次（75個基點） 10%
$15,514,764 交易量
$15,514,764 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
31%
1（25個基點）
28%
2（50個基點）
21%
3次（75個基點）
10%
4（100 個基點）
5%
5次（125個基點）
3%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
1%
0（0個基點） 30.9%
1（25個基點） 28%
2（50個基點） 21%
3次（75個基點） 10%
$15,514,764 交易量
$15,514,764 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$2,697,850 交易量
31%
1（25個基點）
$895,800 交易量
28%
2（50個基點）
$824,469 交易量
21%
3次（75個基點）
$795,382 交易量
10%
4（100 個基點）
$808,374 交易量
5%
5次（125個基點）
$866,415 交易量
3%
6次（150個基點）
$1,884,406 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$795,223 交易量
1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,023,536 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$851,491 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$1,315,014 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$1,131,654 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$1,626,043 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between zero (30.9%) and one (27.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid a spiking oil shock from geopolitical tensions, which has inflated near-term CPI expectations and eroded cut probabilities in fed funds futures—now pricing an end-2026 rate near 3.59%. The Fed's dot plot median still envisions one cut, but February's weak nonfarm payrolls (-92,000) signal labor softening, counterbalanced by resilient GDP growth. This deadlock hinges on March CPI (due April 10) and payrolls data ahead of the April 29-30 FOMC, where policy hold odds exceed 94%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$15,514,764結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between zero (30.9%) and one (27.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid a spiking oil shock from geopolitical tensions, which has inflated near-term CPI expectations and eroded cut probabilities in fed funds futures—now pricing an end-2026 rate near 3.59%. The Fed's dot plot median still envisions one cut, but February's weak nonfarm payrolls (-92,000) signal labor softening, counterbalanced by resilient GDP growth. This deadlock hinges on March CPI (due April 10) and payrolls data ahead of the April 29-30 FOMC, where policy hold odds exceed 94%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$15,514,764結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between zero (30.9%) and one (27.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid a spiking oil shock from geopolitical tensions, which has inflated near-term CPI expectations and eroded cut probabilities in fed funds futures—now pricing an end-2026 rate near 3.59%. The Fed's dot plot median still envisions one cut, but February's weak nonfarm payrolls (-92,000) signal labor softening, counterbalanced by resilient GDP growth. This deadlock hinges on March CPI (due April 10) and payrolls data ahead of the April 29-30 FOMC, where policy hold odds exceed 94%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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