Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady since January amid resilient labor markets and steady inflation near 2.4% as of February CPI data. The March FOMC statement and dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, reinforced by Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks deeming rates in a "good place" despite oil price shocks, while Friday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—easing cut urgency. Upside risks to inflation or further labor strength could solidify the pause, but softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or April FOMC signals might revive modest cut odds around 4.5%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於無變動 91%
下調25個基點 5%
上調25個基點 2.8%
降息50個基點或以上 <1%
$5,495,841 交易量
$5,495,841 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50個基點或以上
1%
下調25個基點
5%
無變動
91%
上調25個基點
3%
上調超過50個基點
1%
無變動 91%
下調25個基點 5%
上調25個基點 2.8%
降息50個基點或以上 <1%
$5,495,841 交易量
$5,495,841 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50個基點或以上
$1,594,702 交易量
1%
下調25個基點
$749,388 交易量
5%
無變動
$1,141,750 交易量
91%
上調25個基點
$1,094,434 交易量
3%
上調超過50個基點
$915,579 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady since January amid resilient labor markets and steady inflation near 2.4% as of February CPI data. The March FOMC statement and dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, reinforced by Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks deeming rates in a "good place" despite oil price shocks, while Friday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—easing cut urgency. Upside risks to inflation or further labor strength could solidify the pause, but softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or April FOMC signals might revive modest cut odds around 4.5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
交易量
$5,495,841結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady since January amid resilient labor markets and steady inflation near 2.4% as of February CPI data. The March FOMC statement and dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, reinforced by Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks deeming rates in a "good place" despite oil price shocks, while Friday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—easing cut urgency. Upside risks to inflation or further labor strength could solidify the pause, but softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or April FOMC signals might revive modest cut odds around 4.5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$5,495,841結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady since January amid resilient labor markets and steady inflation near 2.4% as of February CPI data. The March FOMC statement and dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, reinforced by Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks deeming rates in a "good place" despite oil price shocks, while Friday's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—easing cut urgency. Upside risks to inflation or further labor strength could solidify the pause, but softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or April FOMC signals might revive modest cut odds around 4.5%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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