Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the Fed funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on steady 3.50%-3.75% policy amid resilient U.S. economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding estimates—while unemployment edged down to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, reinforcing labor market strength without overheating signals. February CPI held steady at 2.4% annually, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot median of one 25 basis point cut by end-2026, as Chair Powell described current rates in a "good place." Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or abrupt labor softening ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於無變動 91%
下調25個基點 7%
上調25個基點 2.0%
降息50個基點或以上 <1%
$5,689,862 交易量
$5,689,862 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50個基點或以上
1%
下調25個基點
7%
無變動
91%
上調25個基點
2%
上調超過50個基點
1%
無變動 91%
下調25個基點 7%
上調25個基點 2.0%
降息50個基點或以上 <1%
$5,689,862 交易量
$5,689,862 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50個基點或以上
$1,609,995 交易量
1%
下調25個基點
$860,099 交易量
7%
無變動
$1,176,440 交易量
91%
上調25個基點
$1,112,616 交易量
2%
上調超過50個基點
$930,711 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the Fed funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on steady 3.50%-3.75% policy amid resilient U.S. economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding estimates—while unemployment edged down to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, reinforcing labor market strength without overheating signals. February CPI held steady at 2.4% annually, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot median of one 25 basis point cut by end-2026, as Chair Powell described current rates in a "good place." Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or abrupt labor softening ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
交易量
$5,689,862結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the Fed funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on steady 3.50%-3.75% policy amid resilient U.S. economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding estimates—while unemployment edged down to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, reinforcing labor market strength without overheating signals. February CPI held steady at 2.4% annually, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot median of one 25 basis point cut by end-2026, as Chair Powell described current rates in a "good place." Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or abrupt labor softening ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$5,689,862結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 90.5% implied probability of no change to the Fed funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on steady 3.50%-3.75% policy amid resilient U.S. economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding estimates—while unemployment edged down to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, reinforcing labor market strength without overheating signals. February CPI held steady at 2.4% annually, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot median of one 25 basis point cut by end-2026, as Chair Powell described current rates in a "good place." Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or abrupt labor softening ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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