Skip to main content
Market icon
經濟艙·Fed

2026年聯儲局加息？

Market icon
經濟艙·Fed

2026年聯儲局加息？

10月 29

12月 9

10月 29

12月 9

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$907,158 交易量

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$907,158 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.4% federal funds rate by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with no upward revisions despite hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge amid geopolitical oil shocks. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized a firm economic footing and transitory pressures, tempering hike fears that briefly pushed CME FedWatch probabilities above 50% in late March. Upcoming catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and April CPI data, which could shift rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates persistently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$907,158
結束日期
2026-12-09
市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.4% federal funds rate by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with no upward revisions despite hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge amid geopolitical oil shocks. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized a firm economic footing and transitory pressures, tempering hike fears that briefly pushed CME FedWatch probabilities above 50% in late March. Upcoming catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and April CPI data, which could shift rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates persistently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$907,158
結束日期
2026-12-09
市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年聯儲局加息？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年聯邦利率會上調嗎？" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年聯儲局加息？" has generated $907.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年聯儲局加息？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年聯儲局加息？" is "2026年聯邦利率會上調嗎？" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年聯儲局加息？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.