**Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair nomination, announced by President Trump on January 30 and formally sent to the Senate on March 4, remains stalled by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who objects to the DOJ's ongoing probe into current Chair Jerome Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation project.** Tillis has pledged support for Warsh post-resolution, but the hold has delayed Senate Banking Committee advancement. Recent reports indicate a confirmation hearing could occur the week of April 13 if Warsh submits paperwork and the investigation concludes promptly. With Powell's term ending May 15, traders assess risks of procedural snags, potential GOP holds, or external pressures like Iran tensions prompting pre-confirmation developments such as withdrawal or recess appointment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$102,356 交易量
2026-10-31
美國 x 伊朗停火
55%
聯準會降息
6%
美國確認外星人存在
5%
$102,356 交易量
美國 x 伊朗停火
$46,048 交易量
55%
聯準會降息
$24,799 交易量
6%
美國確認外星人存在
$31,508 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.**Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair nomination, announced by President Trump on January 30 and formally sent to the Senate on March 4, remains stalled by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who objects to the DOJ's ongoing probe into current Chair Jerome Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation project.** Tillis has pledged support for Warsh post-resolution, but the hold has delayed Senate Banking Committee advancement. Recent reports indicate a confirmation hearing could occur the week of April 13 if Warsh submits paperwork and the investigation concludes promptly. With Powell's term ending May 15, traders assess risks of procedural snags, potential GOP holds, or external pressures like Iran tensions prompting pre-confirmation developments such as withdrawal or recess appointment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.
市場開放時間： Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$102,356結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.**Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair nomination, announced by President Trump on January 30 and formally sent to the Senate on March 4, remains stalled by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who objects to the DOJ's ongoing probe into current Chair Jerome Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation project.** Tillis has pledged support for Warsh post-resolution, but the hold has delayed Senate Banking Committee advancement. Recent reports indicate a confirmation hearing could occur the week of April 13 if Warsh submits paperwork and the investigation concludes promptly. With Powell's term ending May 15, traders assess risks of procedural snags, potential GOP holds, or external pressures like Iran tensions prompting pre-confirmation developments such as withdrawal or recess appointment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.
交易量
$102,356結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair nomination, announced by President Trump on January 30 and formally sent to the Senate on March 4, remains stalled by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who objects to the DOJ's ongoing probe into current Chair Jerome Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation project.** Tillis has pledged support for Warsh post-resolution, but the hold has delayed Senate Banking Committee advancement. Recent reports indicate a confirmation hearing could occur the week of April 13 if Warsh submits paperwork and the investigation concludes promptly. With Powell's term ending May 15, traders assess risks of procedural snags, potential GOP holds, or external pressures like Iran tensions prompting pre-confirmation developments such as withdrawal or recess appointment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions