Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46.5% chance the DHS shutdown ends before April 1, driven by bipartisan talks on a short-term continuing resolution to extend appropriations past the immediate funding lapse affecting Department of Homeland Security operations. Recent House Republican leadership statements signal flexibility on spending cuts, following a failed March vote that heightened shutdown risks, while Senate Democrats push for minimal drama ahead of midterms. Lower odds for mid-April windows (11-12%) reflect historical patterns of last-minute deals via omnibus or CR packages, with whip counts showing narrow majorities possible. Upcoming floor votes and White House involvement could tip balances, though filibuster threats or holdouts from fiscal hawks add uncertainty to prolonged closure scenarios beyond April 30 (9.5%).
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月1日之前 51%
4月1日至4日 16%
4月13日至16日 12%
4月9日至12日 10%
$35,069 交易量
$35,069 交易量
4月1日之前
51%
4月1日至4日
16%
4月5日至8日
9%
4月9日至12日
10%
4月13日至16日
12%
4月17日至20日
10%
4月21日至24日
9%
4月25日至28日
10%
4月29日至30日
10%
4月30日之後
9%
4月1日之前 51%
4月1日至4日 16%
4月13日至16日 12%
4月9日至12日 10%
$35,069 交易量
$35,069 交易量
4月1日之前
51%
4月1日至4日
16%
4月5日至8日
9%
4月9日至12日
10%
4月13日至16日
12%
4月17日至20日
10%
4月21日至24日
9%
4月25日至28日
10%
4月29日至30日
10%
4月30日之後
9%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Mar 25, 2026, 9:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46.5% chance the DHS shutdown ends before April 1, driven by bipartisan talks on a short-term continuing resolution to extend appropriations past the immediate funding lapse affecting Department of Homeland Security operations. Recent House Republican leadership statements signal flexibility on spending cuts, following a failed March vote that heightened shutdown risks, while Senate Democrats push for minimal drama ahead of midterms. Lower odds for mid-April windows (11-12%) reflect historical patterns of last-minute deals via omnibus or CR packages, with whip counts showing narrow majorities possible. Upcoming floor votes and White House involvement could tip balances, though filibuster threats or holdouts from fiscal hawks add uncertainty to prolonged closure scenarios beyond April 30 (9.5%).
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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