Polymarket traders' near-tie between 3.5% (27.5%) and 3.75% (27.2%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026 reflects FOMC consensus from the March 17-18 meeting, where the dot plot median held at 3.4% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth, with most participants eyeing a 3.25%-3.75% range through year-end. Current policy at 3.5%-3.75%—unchanged for the second meeting—bolsters the higher cluster, as February unemployment edged to 4.4% signaling modest labor softening, yet rising inflation nowcasts (March CPI at 3.25%) and energy shocks from geopolitical tensions temper cut expectations per Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks that rates are in a "good place." Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC, with futures implying steady ~3.6% path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3.5% 27%
3.75% 23.6%
3.25% 15%
4.0% 11.5%
$5,972,668 交易量
$5,972,668 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
2%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
6%
3.0%
5%
3.25%
15%
3.5%
27%
3.75%
24%
4.0%
11%
4.25%
4%
大於或等於4.5%
8%
3.5% 27%
3.75% 23.6%
3.25% 15%
4.0% 11.5%
$5,972,668 交易量
$5,972,668 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$192,078 交易量
2%
1.25
$99,522 交易量
1%
1.5%
$108,524 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$97,441 交易量
<1%
2.0%
$117,317 交易量
1%
2.25%
$60,241 交易量
1%
2.5%
$122,021 交易量
1%
2.75%
$23,513 交易量
6%
3.0%
$430,929 交易量
5%
3.25%
$38,188 交易量
15%
3.5%
$56,701 交易量
27%
3.75%
$491,532 交易量
24%
4.0%
$1,342,999 交易量
11%
4.25%
$403,563 交易量
4%
大於或等於4.5%
$2,388,096 交易量
8%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders' near-tie between 3.5% (27.5%) and 3.75% (27.2%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026 reflects FOMC consensus from the March 17-18 meeting, where the dot plot median held at 3.4% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth, with most participants eyeing a 3.25%-3.75% range through year-end. Current policy at 3.5%-3.75%—unchanged for the second meeting—bolsters the higher cluster, as February unemployment edged to 4.4% signaling modest labor softening, yet rising inflation nowcasts (March CPI at 3.25%) and energy shocks from geopolitical tensions temper cut expectations per Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks that rates are in a "good place." Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC, with futures implying steady ~3.6% path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$5,972,668結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders' near-tie between 3.5% (27.5%) and 3.75% (27.2%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026 reflects FOMC consensus from the March 17-18 meeting, where the dot plot median held at 3.4% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth, with most participants eyeing a 3.25%-3.75% range through year-end. Current policy at 3.5%-3.75%—unchanged for the second meeting—bolsters the higher cluster, as February unemployment edged to 4.4% signaling modest labor softening, yet rising inflation nowcasts (March CPI at 3.25%) and energy shocks from geopolitical tensions temper cut expectations per Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks that rates are in a "good place." Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC, with futures implying steady ~3.6% path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$5,972,668結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' near-tie between 3.5% (27.5%) and 3.75% (27.2%) for the federal funds rate at end-2026 reflects FOMC consensus from the March 17-18 meeting, where the dot plot median held at 3.4% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth, with most participants eyeing a 3.25%-3.75% range through year-end. Current policy at 3.5%-3.75%—unchanged for the second meeting—bolsters the higher cluster, as February unemployment edged to 4.4% signaling modest labor softening, yet rising inflation nowcasts (March CPI at 3.25%) and energy shocks from geopolitical tensions temper cut expectations per Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks that rates are in a "good place." Key swing factors include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC, with futures implying steady ~3.6% path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions