The Federal Reserve's March 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with a dot plot signaling just one rate cut this year and funds nearing low-3% by end-2027, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.33% as of April 1 amid persistent core CPI inflation at 2.5% year-over-year for February. Softening labor conditions—unemployment at 4.4% and 92,000 payroll losses—support modest easing expectations without aggressive cuts that could drive yields sharply lower. Trader consensus prices limited downside absent recessionary pressures, with the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases as pivotal catalysts through mid-2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$180,410 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
65%
3.8%
49%
3.7%
24%
3.6%
28%
3.5%
19%
3.0%
12%
2.0%
9%
1.0%
6%
$180,410 交易量
3.9%
$28,116 交易量
65%
3.8%
$26,251 交易量
49%
3.7%
$20,675 交易量
24%
3.6%
$4,645 交易量
28%
3.5%
$29,841 交易量
19%
3.0%
$0 交易量
12%
2.0%
$214 交易量
9%
1.0%
$38,910 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The Federal Reserve's March 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with a dot plot signaling just one rate cut this year and funds nearing low-3% by end-2027, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.33% as of April 1 amid persistent core CPI inflation at 2.5% year-over-year for February. Softening labor conditions—unemployment at 4.4% and 92,000 payroll losses—support modest easing expectations without aggressive cuts that could drive yields sharply lower. Trader consensus prices limited downside absent recessionary pressures, with the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases as pivotal catalysts through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$180,410結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The Federal Reserve's March 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with a dot plot signaling just one rate cut this year and funds nearing low-3% by end-2027, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.33% as of April 1 amid persistent core CPI inflation at 2.5% year-over-year for February. Softening labor conditions—unemployment at 4.4% and 92,000 payroll losses—support modest easing expectations without aggressive cuts that could drive yields sharply lower. Trader consensus prices limited downside absent recessionary pressures, with the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases as pivotal catalysts through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$180,410結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's March 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with a dot plot signaling just one rate cut this year and funds nearing low-3% by end-2027, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.33% as of April 1 amid persistent core CPI inflation at 2.5% year-over-year for February. Softening labor conditions—unemployment at 4.4% and 92,000 payroll losses—support modest easing expectations without aggressive cuts that could drive yields sharply lower. Trader consensus prices limited downside absent recessionary pressures, with the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases as pivotal catalysts through mid-2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions