The strong 97.8% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March-through-June FOMC meetings reflects traders' consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient economic growth. Sticky core CPI readings, including the April 2026 print near 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions, combined with solid labor market data and above-trend GDP, have reinforced expectations for a prolonged pause in monetary policy easing. This positioning aligns with the Fed's March and April statements emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, as well as futures pricing that assigns negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where any acceleration in disinflation or unexpected softening in employment could still introduce volatility to the rate path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 97.6%
暫停–暫停–降息 1.9%
其他 1.1%
$1,111,614 交易量
$1,111,614 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
98%
暫停–暫停–降息
2%
其他
1%
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 97.6%
暫停–暫停–降息 1.9%
其他 1.1%
$1,111,614 交易量
$1,111,614 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
$65,401 交易量
98%
暫停–暫停–降息
$44,478 交易量
2%
其他
$256,393 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe strong 97.8% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March-through-June FOMC meetings reflects traders' consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient economic growth. Sticky core CPI readings, including the April 2026 print near 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions, combined with solid labor market data and above-trend GDP, have reinforced expectations for a prolonged pause in monetary policy easing. This positioning aligns with the Fed's March and April statements emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, as well as futures pricing that assigns negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where any acceleration in disinflation or unexpected softening in employment could still introduce volatility to the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,111,614結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe strong 97.8% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March-through-June FOMC meetings reflects traders' consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient economic growth. Sticky core CPI readings, including the April 2026 print near 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions, combined with solid labor market data and above-trend GDP, have reinforced expectations for a prolonged pause in monetary policy easing. This positioning aligns with the Fed's March and April statements emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, as well as futures pricing that assigns negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where any acceleration in disinflation or unexpected softening in employment could still introduce volatility to the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,111,614結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong 97.8% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March-through-June FOMC meetings reflects traders' consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient economic growth. Sticky core CPI readings, including the April 2026 print near 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions, combined with solid labor market data and above-trend GDP, have reinforced expectations for a prolonged pause in monetary policy easing. This positioning aligns with the Fed's March and April statements emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, as well as futures pricing that assigns negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where any acceleration in disinflation or unexpected softening in employment could still introduce volatility to the rate path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions