Traders assign a 98% implied probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence in the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because recent data have reinforced the case for steady policy. The April 29 decision maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%, and inflation remaining elevated amid tariff effects and higher energy prices. Market-implied odds reflect this cautious stance, with the Committee signaling balanced risks and limited appetite for near-term easing. A faster-than-expected cooling in core PCE or a sharp deterioration in employment could still shift the June outcome, though current indicators show few signs of such a shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 98.0%
暫停–暫停–降息 1.5%
其他 <1%
$1,115,161 交易量
$1,115,161 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
98%
暫停–暫停–降息
2%
其他
1%
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 98.0%
暫停–暫停–降息 1.5%
其他 <1%
$1,115,161 交易量
$1,115,161 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
$67,343 交易量
98%
暫停–暫停–降息
$45,314 交易量
2%
其他
$257,163 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign a 98% implied probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence in the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because recent data have reinforced the case for steady policy. The April 29 decision maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%, and inflation remaining elevated amid tariff effects and higher energy prices. Market-implied odds reflect this cautious stance, with the Committee signaling balanced risks and limited appetite for near-term easing. A faster-than-expected cooling in core PCE or a sharp deterioration in employment could still shift the June outcome, though current indicators show few signs of such a shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,115,161結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign a 98% implied probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence in the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because recent data have reinforced the case for steady policy. The April 29 decision maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%, and inflation remaining elevated amid tariff effects and higher energy prices. Market-implied odds reflect this cautious stance, with the Committee signaling balanced risks and limited appetite for near-term easing. A faster-than-expected cooling in core PCE or a sharp deterioration in employment could still shift the June outcome, though current indicators show few signs of such a shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,115,161結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 98% implied probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence in the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because recent data have reinforced the case for steady policy. The April 29 decision maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%, and inflation remaining elevated amid tariff effects and higher energy prices. Market-implied odds reflect this cautious stance, with the Committee signaling balanced risks and limited appetite for near-term easing. A faster-than-expected cooling in core PCE or a sharp deterioration in employment could still shift the June outcome, though current indicators show few signs of such a shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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