Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions, anchor market-implied odds heavily toward a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 74.5% for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve’s target range remains 3.50%–3.75%, with recent minutes and dot-plot signals indicating limited tolerance for easing while core measures stay above target and labor market data show resilience. This pricing aligns with futures-implied paths and analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end, though upcoming May CPI and June employment releases could introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 14%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.8%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
2%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 14%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.8%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 交易量
2%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 交易量
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$177 交易量
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 交易量
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$504 交易量
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$172 交易量
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 交易量
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 交易量
4%
Other
$148 交易量
15%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions, anchor market-implied odds heavily toward a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 74.5% for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve’s target range remains 3.50%–3.75%, with recent minutes and dot-plot signals indicating limited tolerance for easing while core measures stay above target and labor market data show resilience. This pricing aligns with futures-implied paths and analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end, though upcoming May CPI and June employment releases could introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,629結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions, anchor market-implied odds heavily toward a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 74.5% for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve’s target range remains 3.50%–3.75%, with recent minutes and dot-plot signals indicating limited tolerance for easing while core measures stay above target and labor market data show resilience. This pricing aligns with futures-implied paths and analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end, though upcoming May CPI and June employment releases could introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,629結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions, anchor market-implied odds heavily toward a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 74.5% for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve’s target range remains 3.50%–3.75%, with recent minutes and dot-plot signals indicating limited tolerance for easing while core measures stay above target and labor market data show resilience. This pricing aligns with futures-implied paths and analyst forecasts for steady policy through year-end, though upcoming May CPI and June employment releases could introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions