Polymarket traders price an 83.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—while projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid resilient labor conditions (February unemployment at 4.4%) and sticky inflation (February CPI up 0.3%). Absent acute shocks like banking turmoil or recession signals, market consensus views the scheduled FOMC path, including the April 28-29 meeting (94.8% odds of no change per CME FedWatch), as sufficient, with historical emergency actions limited to crises. Traders monitor March CPI due April 10 for any shifts in policy expectations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$73,743 交易量
$73,743 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$73,743 交易量
$73,743 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders price an 83.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—while projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid resilient labor conditions (February unemployment at 4.4%) and sticky inflation (February CPI up 0.3%). Absent acute shocks like banking turmoil or recession signals, market consensus views the scheduled FOMC path, including the April 28-29 meeting (94.8% odds of no change per CME FedWatch), as sufficient, with historical emergency actions limited to crises. Traders monitor March CPI due April 10 for any shifts in policy expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$73,743結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders price an 83.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—while projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid resilient labor conditions (February unemployment at 4.4%) and sticky inflation (February CPI up 0.3%). Absent acute shocks like banking turmoil or recession signals, market consensus views the scheduled FOMC path, including the April 28-29 meeting (94.8% odds of no change per CME FedWatch), as sufficient, with historical emergency actions limited to crises. Traders monitor March CPI due April 10 for any shifts in policy expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
交易量
$73,743結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 83.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—while projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid resilient labor conditions (February unemployment at 4.4%) and sticky inflation (February CPI up 0.3%). Absent acute shocks like banking turmoil or recession signals, market consensus views the scheduled FOMC path, including the April 28-29 meeting (94.8% odds of no change per CME FedWatch), as sufficient, with historical emergency actions limited to crises. Traders monitor March CPI due April 10 for any shifts in policy expectations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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