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政治·特朗普

凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？

$438,057 交易量

2026-05-15
Polymarket

$438,057 交易量

Polymarket

5月1日

$291,393 交易量

11%

5月15日

$146,664 交易量

51%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15, advancing the process after an initial announcement in late January. Recent delays, including a March 27 impasse tied to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions driving oil prices higher and complicating inflation outlooks, have eased with the Senate Banking Committee scheduling a confirmation hearing the week of April 13. Traders weigh Senate dynamics, including potential holds from both parties over Warsh's monetary policy views and Fed independence, against the compressed timeline for committee approval and a floor vote requiring simple majority support. Powell has pledged to remain until a successor is confirmed.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$438,057
結束日期
2026-05-15
市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15, advancing the process after an initial announcement in late January. Recent delays, including a March 27 impasse tied to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions driving oil prices higher and complicating inflation outlooks, have eased with the Senate Banking Committee scheduling a confirmation hearing the week of April 13. Traders weigh Senate dynamics, including potential holds from both parties over Warsh's monetary policy views and Fed independence, against the compressed timeline for committee approval and a floor vote requiring simple majority support. Powell has pledged to remain until a successor is confirmed.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$438,057
結束日期
2026-05-15
市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5月15日" at 51%, followed by "5月1日" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" has generated $438.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" is "5月15日" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5月1日" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.