Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty over GOP unity for confirming Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, with 51, 54, and 60+ yes votes each around 33%, amid a 53-47 Republican Senate majority requiring just 51 for passage. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Banking Committee member, continues blocking advancement pending resolution of a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell—despite Tillis praising Warsh's credentials—creating the primary bottleneck. Recent scheduling of confirmation hearings for the week of April 13 signals progress, bolstered by supportive meetings with Sens. Lummis and Cramer, while Democrats like Sen. Warren remain firmly opposed. Powell's May 15 term end adds urgency; probe appeal outcome or Tillis shift could separate leaders toward 52-54 GOP votes or stall via no committee approval.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於54 32.5%
60+ 11%
53 7%
52 5.7%
$62,438 交易量
$62,438 交易量
2026-12-31
≤49
5%
50
4%
51
33%
52
6%
53
7%
54
33%
55
7%
56
2%
57
4%
58
4%
59
2%
60+
33%
至12月31日未投票／撤回
5%
54 32.5%
60+ 11%
53 7%
52 5.7%
$62,438 交易量
$62,438 交易量
2026-12-31
≤49
$20,987 交易量
5%
50
$0 交易量
4%
51
$0 交易量
33%
52
$0 交易量
6%
53
$221 交易量
7%
54
$178 交易量
33%
55
$0 交易量
7%
56
$52 交易量
2%
57
$0 交易量
4%
58
$0 交易量
4%
59
$388 交易量
2%
60+
$40,612 交易量
33%
至12月31日未投票／撤回
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty over GOP unity for confirming Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, with 51, 54, and 60+ yes votes each around 33%, amid a 53-47 Republican Senate majority requiring just 51 for passage. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Banking Committee member, continues blocking advancement pending resolution of a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell—despite Tillis praising Warsh's credentials—creating the primary bottleneck. Recent scheduling of confirmation hearings for the week of April 13 signals progress, bolstered by supportive meetings with Sens. Lummis and Cramer, while Democrats like Sen. Warren remain firmly opposed. Powell's May 15 term end adds urgency; probe appeal outcome or Tillis shift could separate leaders toward 52-54 GOP votes or stall via no committee approval.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
交易量
$62,438結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty over GOP unity for confirming Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, with 51, 54, and 60+ yes votes each around 33%, amid a 53-47 Republican Senate majority requiring just 51 for passage. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Banking Committee member, continues blocking advancement pending resolution of a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell—despite Tillis praising Warsh's credentials—creating the primary bottleneck. Recent scheduling of confirmation hearings for the week of April 13 signals progress, bolstered by supportive meetings with Sens. Lummis and Cramer, while Democrats like Sen. Warren remain firmly opposed. Powell's May 15 term end adds urgency; probe appeal outcome or Tillis shift could separate leaders toward 52-54 GOP votes or stall via no committee approval.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$62,438結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty over GOP unity for confirming Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, with 51, 54, and 60+ yes votes each around 33%, amid a 53-47 Republican Senate majority requiring just 51 for passage. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Banking Committee member, continues blocking advancement pending resolution of a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell—despite Tillis praising Warsh's credentials—creating the primary bottleneck. Recent scheduling of confirmation hearings for the week of April 13 signals progress, bolstered by supportive meetings with Sens. Lummis and Cramer, while Democrats like Sen. Warren remain firmly opposed. Powell's May 15 term end adds urgency; probe appeal outcome or Tillis shift could separate leaders toward 52-54 GOP votes or stall via no committee approval.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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