Following the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic presidential nomination for 2028 remains a wide-open contest with no dominant contender. Trader consensus currently assigns Gavin Newsom the highest implied probability, reflecting his visibility as California governor, record on state-level policy, and prior national exposure. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Kamala Harris trail closely behind, supported by distinct progressive and established voter coalitions. Differentiators among leading figures include fundraising networks, primary-state organizing, appeal to swing voters, and performance in the 2026 midterms. Upcoming primaries, convention dynamics, and shifts in party messaging could consolidate support as candidates test viability through polling averages and early endorsements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Democratic candidates Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez maintain low market prices amid ongoing controversies
Both Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez's market prices remained low due to lingering controversies and challenges within the Democratic Party, reflecting skepticism about their 2028 nomination chances.
Gavin Newsom’s poll surge after high‑profile endorsement by Hollywood star
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
A late‑May endorsement from a major Hollywood figure boosted Newsom’s visibility and poll numbers, nudging his market price slightly higher despite overall market volatility.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic field with 24% support for 2028 nomination
A late‑May poll of Democratic voters placed Newsom at 24% support, the highest among all potential nominees, reinforcing his market price increase to the endpoint of 24% and confirming his status as the market’s front‑runner.
Zohran Mamdani sworn in as New York City mayor, pledges democratic socialism
Mamdani's inauguration as NYC mayor and his commitment to democratic socialism, supported by figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, highlighted the progressive wing's influence, impacting Ocasio-Cortez's market perception.
California launches free‑diaper program for newborns
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
The new social‑policy initiative showcased Newsom’s focus on family‑friendly measures, slightly raising his profile among progressive voters and nudging his market price upward.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill, questioning presidential suitability
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
Berry's public condemnation of Newsom's veto on women's health legislation raised questions about his support among female voters, impacting his market price.
Kamala Harris regains some market support amid speculation of 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris jumps to 11%7%
Harris's market price rose slightly due to renewed speculation about her potential 2028 presidential candidacy and public appearances.
San Jose mayor Matt Mahan criticizes Newsom’s handling of homelessness and crime
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Mahan, a critic of Newsom and candidate for California governor, emphasized his moderate stance and record on homelessness and crime, challenging Newsom’s legacy and potentially impacting his presidential bid.
Rahm Emanuel’s endorsement of another candidate sidelines his own prospects
Emanuel publicly endorsed a fellow Democrat, effectively ending his own campaign and driving his market price down to the lowest level.
Kamala Harris' nomination chances briefly rebound amid speculation of 2028 bid
Kamala Harris rises to 10%4%
Speculation about Harris considering a 2028 presidential run led to a temporary increase in her market price, reflecting renewed interest in her candidacy despite earlier declines.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for Pennsylvania governor reelection
Shapiro's record fundraising for his reelection bid elevated his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though his market price remained low due to prior controversies.
Rahm Emanuel’s support erodes after policy disagreement with party leadership
Rahm Emanuel rises to 3%1%
Emanuel’s public clash with Democratic leadership over a tax proposal reduced his appeal, moving his market price from 2% to 3% as some voters shifted away.
Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers
Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%
Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.
Poll shows Democratic primary voters favor less‑established candidates over Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%
A mid‑year poll indicated voters were leaning toward newer faces, causing Newsom’s price to rise modestly to 28% while the odds for other front‑runners fell further.
Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, touts California as national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%
Newsom's final State of the State address emphasized California's progressive policies and opposition to federal overreach, boosting his national profile and slightly increasing his nomination market price.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Mahan's entry added a moderate Democratic candidate critical of Newsom, influencing the dynamics of the governor's race and potentially Newsom's 2028 prospects, reflected in minor market fluctuations.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned Governor Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related healthcare bill, accusing him of devaluing women. This criticism from a high-profile advocate brought negative attention to Newsom's record on women's health, potentially affecting his presidential prospects.
California proposes K-12 education governance reform under Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
Newsom proposed shifting more power to the governor and State Board of Education to streamline K-12 governance, signaling his focus on education reform as part of his leadership portfolio.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, sparking public debate
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%1%
Trump's attacks on Newsom's dyslexia brought national attention to Newsom's personal challenges and resilience, influencing public perception and market sentiment.
Kamala Harris gains momentum amid California governor race and national positioning
Kamala Harris rises to 8%3%
Kamala Harris's market price rose from 5% to 8% in mid-April 2026, reflecting increased attention as a potential 2028 nominee, possibly boosted by Newsom's weakening position and her own national profile.
Jon Ossoff's nomination chances improve with increased visibility and support
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%3%
Jon Ossoff's market price increased from 5% to 8% in early April 2026, indicating growing recognition and support within the Democratic Party as the 2028 nomination race develops.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, criticizes Trump administration
Newsom's speech reaffirmed his leadership and national profile, supporting his market price stability and potential 2028 presidential bid.
Andy Beshear’s low‑key campaign fails to gain traction in national polls
Andy Beshear dips to 2%3%
Beshear’s lack of national visibility and poor poll numbers led to a continued decline in his market price, reflecting limited expectations for a 2028 bid.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal overreach and highlighted his progressive record, reinforcing his stature as a 2028 presidential contender and supporting a moderate rise in his market price.
Newsom signs executive order on AI harm and government contract rules
Newsom's proactive AI policy enhanced his image as a forward-thinking leader, positively impacting his market position.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
Swalwell’s exit removed a major competitor, allowing remaining candidates to consolidate support; the market prices for other front‑runners stabilized, with Newsom’s price edging up slightly to 24% by mid‑May.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
The court’s decision secured a Democratic‑leaning map, improving the overall outlook for Democratic candidates in California and giving a modest lift to Newsom’s perceived electability.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for 2028 Democratic nomination
Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%
Harris publicly confirmed she will not seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, removing her from contention and causing her market price to fall from 9% to 6% as traders adjusted expectations.
Andy Beshear’s campaign stalls amid low voter awareness
Beshear’s low‑profile campaign failed to gain traction, keeping his market price flat at 3% after a brief rise earlier in the year.
Georgia sets special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
The special election to replace Greene could impact the political landscape and influence Democratic prospects, indirectly affecting candidates like Jon Ossoff in the 2028 nomination market.
Georgia sets March 10 election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress
The special election in Georgia following Greene's resignation may have influenced local political dynamics, indirectly affecting Jon Ossoff's market price as a prominent Georgia Democrat.
Pete Buttigieg’s campaign announces withdrawal from 2028 race
Pete Buttigieg drops to 4%8%
Buttigieg’s exit removed him from contention, causing his market price to collapse to near‑zero as investors reallocated support to remaining candidates.
Newsom’s State of the State speech emphasizes California as a national model
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%4%
The high‑visibility address reinforced Newsom’s national profile, stabilizing his price at 25% after a brief dip.
Jon Ossoff’s campaign receives major fundraising boost
A sizable infusion of cash into Ossoff’s campaign shifted attention away from Newsom, contributing to a modest price decline.
Newsom’s final State of the State speech defends record and hints at 2028 run
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
In his last State of the State address, Newsom defended his record and explicitly mentioned eyeing a 2028 presidential bid, which helped stabilize his price at 24% after a brief dip.
Actors Awards 2026 nominees announced, highlighting films like 'One Battle After Another'
The announcement of major award nominees can influence cultural narratives and candidate endorsements, indirectly affecting market sentiment for candidates like Rahm Emanuel and Pete Buttigieg who have political ties to entertainment sectors.
Newsom touts reduction in EBT theft amid Trump administration scrutiny
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%6%
Newsom highlighted significant declines in public benefit theft in California, countering Trump administration's allegations of fraud and reinforcing his governance credentials.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faces criticism over immigration and healthcare stances
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 9%3%
Ocasio-Cortez's vocal criticism of immigration enforcement and healthcare cuts drew mixed reactions, leading to a decline in her nomination market price as some Democrats questioned her electability.
California proposal for billionaire tax divides Democrats, Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%3%
A proposed hefty tax on billionaires in California created a rift within the Democratic Party, with progressive figures like Bernie Sanders supporting it and Newsom opposing. This division highlighted ideological splits that may have influenced market perceptions of Newsom's electability.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
The budget shortfall constrained Newsom's ability to advance new programs, affecting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.
Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
Harris’s decision to focus on other political goals removed a potential rival for Newsom, slightly improving his odds.
Gavin Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for final year
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%8%
The disclosed deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, prompting a price correction from 35% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.
Pete Buttigieg’s poll numbers dip after debate performance
Pete Buttigieg dips to 4%1%
Buttigieg’s weak showing in a televised debate caused his poll share to slip, moving his market price from 5% to 4% the next day.
Jon Ossoff’s Senate race draws criticism over staff hiring ethics
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
An ethics report implicating a top aide to Ossoff’s opponent raised concerns about campaign conduct, indirectly harming Ossoff’s perceived electability and lowering his market price.
Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs
Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%
Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.
Newsom’s budget shortfall leads to proposed cuts in progressive programs
Gavin Newsom drops to 29%5%
Further details on the deficit prompted speculation about cuts to popular policies, causing Newsom’s price to fall from 34% to 29% and reinforcing the decline of other candidates.
California launches instant electric vehicle rebates to counter federal cuts
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%3%
Newsom's plan for instant EV rebates requiring automaker matching aimed to boost clean energy adoption and counteract Trump administration's dismantling of federal incentives, showcasing his policy leadership.
Trevor Noah to host Grammy Awards for sixth and final time
While unrelated to the nomination, cultural events like the Grammys can influence public mood and political engagement, indirectly affecting candidate visibility and market prices.
Kamala Harris' support declines amid shifting Democratic dynamics post-2024 election
Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%
Following the 2024 election defeat and internal party shifts, Harris' nomination chances declined significantly, reflecting market adjustments to her diminished standing within the Democratic Party.
Newsom criticizes Trump, highlights California as national model in State of the State speech
Newsom's strong stance against Trump and promotion of California's policies boosted his national profile and presidential prospects.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, sparking controversy
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
President Trump publicly mocked Newsom's dyslexia, intensifying political tensions and drawing national attention to Newsom's personal challenges and resilience.
Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.
Gov. Josh Shapiro alleges in memoir that Kamala Harris' team asked if he was an Israeli agent
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Shapiro's memoir revelation about vetting questions from Harris' team may have damaged his and Harris' market prices due to perceived controversy and intra-party tensions.
Kamala Harris rebrands and relaunches campaign social media accounts
Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%
Kamala Harris relaunched and rebranded her campaign social media accounts, signaling renewed efforts to maintain political relevance and possibly influence the 2028 Democratic nomination race. This move was noted in the market but had limited impact on her odds.
Gov. Josh Shapiro alleges vetting team questioned him about Israeli ties
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
In his memoir, Shapiro claimed Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he was an Israeli agent, stirring controversy and scrutiny that likely contributed to his market price decline.
Trump administration freezes child care funds to Minnesota amid fraud allegations
Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%
The freeze of federal funds in Minnesota, a state with Democratic leadership including Tim Walz, may have affected perceptions of Democratic governance and indirectly influenced related candidates' market prices.
Democratic National Committee plans major voter registration push targeting young and diverse voters
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
The DNC's initiative to boost voter registration among key demographics may have improved prospects for candidates like Newsom, contributing to his price stability and gains.
Gavin Newsom criticizes European leaders and Trump diplomacy at Davos forum
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
Newsom's blunt remarks at the World Economic Forum criticizing global leaders' handling of Trump and calling for stronger American leadership increased his national visibility and bolstered his presidential prospects.
Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during vetting
Kamala Harris dips to 4%1%
Shapiro's memoir revelation about being questioned on alleged Israeli agent ties by Harris' vetting team stirred controversy, impacting perceptions of both Shapiro and Harris' presidential prospects, reflected in their market prices.
Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.
Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, criticizes Trump administration
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
In his final State of the State address, Newsom positioned California as a national model opposing Trump policies, enhancing his national stature and presidential prospects.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%
Newsom’s office disclosed a $2.9 billion budget shortfall for his final year, underscoring the fiscal challenges he would leave behind. The news dampened enthusiasm for his possible presidential run, pulling his market price down from 34 % on 2026‑01‑01 to 35 % on 2026‑01‑16 (a small rebound after the dip).
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, intensifying political feud
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
President Trump publicly belittled Newsom's dyslexia, calling him 'stupid' and unfit for presidency, escalating their political rivalry. This attack drew sympathy and support for Newsom, reinforcing his narrative of overcoming adversity and potentially aiding his presidential image.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%
The court’s decision to keep a Democratic‑friendly map in place was seen as a boost to the party’s prospects in California, modestly raising Newsom’s price from 34% to 35% as it suggested a favorable electoral environment.
UN rights office cites widespread repression in Uganda before presidential election
While unrelated directly to the U.S. Democratic nomination, international political instability may have influenced broader political discourse and candidate positioning, indirectly affecting market sentiment.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%
Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat and frequent Newsom critic, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's legacy and potentially weakening Newsom's political standing ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run. This likely contributed to Newsom's market price decline in early 2026.
Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address emphasizing national profile
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioned him as a potential 2028 presidential contender, boosting his market price as voters and donors took note of his national ambitions.
Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.
Josh Shapiro’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Shapiro’s campaign reported a significant drop in fundraising, leading to a modest decline in his market price from 4% to 4% (stable) but reinforcing the downward trend from earlier months.
Newsom proposes shifting K-12 education power to governor and Board of Education
Newsom's education reform proposal increased his profile as a policy innovator, positively influencing his market standing.
Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power
Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%
Newsom proposed reforms to reduce the elected State Superintendent's powers and increase the governor-appointed State Board of Education's control, aiming to streamline education governance. This policy move was part of his final year agenda and may have influenced market perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.
Rep. Eric Swalwell ends California governor campaign amid allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%2%
Swalwell abruptly withdrew from the California governor race following sexual assault allegations, causing a collapse in his market price and reshaping the Democratic field for 2028.
Newsom delivers first in‑person State of the State in years, touts climate and homelessness agenda
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
The in‑person address generated media attention and reinforced Newsom’s leadership image, prompting a short‑term price rise for his nomination odds.
Newsom signs executive order on AI procurement and risk assessment
Gavin Newsom dips to 26%1%
The order positioned Newsom as a tech‑policy leader, appealing to moderate and tech‑savvy voters and lifting his market price modestly.
Newsom delivers State of the State, touts education reforms
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
In his final State of the State address, Newsom emphasized education and climate initiatives, briefly boosting his market price as the speech reinforced his policy credentials ahead of a potential presidential run.
Trump revokes Secret Service protection for Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
President Trump revoked Secret Service protection for former Vice President Kamala Harris, signaling political hostility and possibly affecting her perceived viability as a 2028 nominee, contributing to a decline in her market price.
Ethics watchdog questions intern hire by chief of staff to Georgia Senate candidate Mike Collins
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
Ethics concerns around Mike Collins, a Republican opponent of Jon Ossoff, may have indirectly affected Ossoff's market price by influencing perceptions of his electoral competition.
Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for his final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
The revelation of a multibillion‑dollar shortfall limited Newsom’s ability to fund new initiatives, tempering enthusiasm for his presidential ambitions and contributing to a modest price dip.
Newsom touts gains against EBT theft amid Trump‑led benefits fraud attacks
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
By highlighting a sharp drop in EBT theft, Newsom positioned himself as a defender of vulnerable Californians against federal attacks, sustaining his market momentum at 37%.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire tax, opposing Gov. Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
Sanders’ public support for a billionaire tax opposed by Newsom highlighted intra‑party divisions, slightly dampening Newsom’s momentum and contributing to a modest price dip from 38% to 35% later in December.
Bernie Sanders opposes Newsom on California billionaire tax proposal
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
Sanders’ public clash with Newsom over a proposed billionaire tax highlighted intra‑party divisions, dampening Newsom’s appeal among progressive voters and nudging his price lower.
Newsom touts reductions in EBT theft amid federal pressure
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
By highlighting a sharp drop in benefit fraud, Newsom portrayed effective governance, nudging his market price upward from 35% to 37% as the narrative reinforced his competence.
Jon Ossoff exits California governor contest
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
Ossoff withdrew his candidacy amid a crowded field, causing his market price to drop from 4% to 3% as investors reassessed his chances.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends California governor campaign
Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapse following sexual assault allegations led to his withdrawal from the governor's race, reducing competition and shifting market support among Democratic candidates.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom's final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%3%
Newsom's office announced a significant budget shortfall, limiting new program funding in his last year. The fiscal challenge underscored the difficulties of governance and may have tempered enthusiasm for his presidential prospects, reflected in market fluctuations.
Bernie Sanders opposes Newsom’s billionaire tax proposal in California
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Sanders’ public clash with Newsom over the billionaire tax highlighted intra‑party tensions, slightly lowering Newsom’s price to 35% and further depressing other candidates’ odds.
Bernie Sanders campaigns for California billionaire tax opposed by Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Sanders' support for a billionaire tax in California, opposed by Newsom, highlighted intra-party divisions and affected Newsom's standing among progressive voters, contributing to market fluctuations.
California to provide free diapers to newborns at 60+ hospitals
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
Newsom announced a $7.4 million free‑diaper program for newborns, framing it as a signature progressive accomplishment. The announcement gave a modest lift to his market price, which rose from 36 % on 2025‑11‑16 to 37 % on 2025‑12‑01.
Newsom warns of $2.9 billion budget shortfall in final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar deficit in Newsom’s last year as governor raised concerns about his fiscal management, prompting a modest decline in his market price as investors questioned his electability.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez’s fundraising shortfall disclosed
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 10%40%
Financial disclosures revealed Ocasio‑Cortez’s campaign raised far less than anticipated, prompting a steep decline in her market price as investors doubted her viability for the 2028 ticket.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
Swalwell's entry into the crowded California governor race, a key stepping stone for presidential ambitions, influenced market perceptions of Newsom's successor prospects and indirectly affected Newsom's nomination chances.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire tax, clashes with Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Sanders’ advocacy for a new billionaire tax put Newsom at odds with progressive voters, leading to a modest price decline for Newsom from 37% to 35% as his intra‑party standing appeared weakened.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending in California governor race
Steyer's heavy spending in the governor race increased competition and uncertainty, impacting market confidence in Newsom and other candidates.
Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar shortfall raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, tempering enthusiasm for his presidential prospects and contributing to a modest pullback in his price from 38% to 35% while other candidates continued to lose ground.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez endorses a rival in California governor primary
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drops to 4%10%
Ocasio‑Cortez publicly backed another Democratic candidate, signaling reduced personal ambition for the governor’s office and pushing her market price down from 14% to 4%.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension from the governor's race and resignation plans from Congress. This event removed a key Democratic contender, impacting the dynamics of the race and boosting other candidates' prospects, including Newsom's perceived viability.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor race after sexual‑assault allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a major contender, reshuffling support among remaining candidates and causing a brief dip in Newsom’s price as the race became more fragmented.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor’s race
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 14%2%
Mahan’s entry added another high‑profile contender, fragmenting the Democratic field and pulling support away from other candidates, contributing to the drop in AOC’s price to 14% and Harris’s to 6% that week.
Death of California Rep. Doug LaMalfa reduces GOP House control
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
LaMalfa's death triggered a special election and political shifts in California, indirectly affecting Democratic candidates like Newsom by altering the political landscape.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting Democratic primary dynamics
Swalwell's entry into the governor race added to the crowded Democratic field, influencing perceptions of Newsom's political future and the 2028 nomination market.
Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split
Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.
Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation, focusing on Senate duties
Reports that Harris was not pursuing a 2028 run reduced her perceived candidacy, contributing to a continued decline in her market price, which fell to 4% by early November.
Supreme Court upholds new California congressional map favored by Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
The Supreme Court's decision to allow California's congressional map, supported by Newsom, reinforced his political influence and bolstered his national profile ahead of 2028.
California drops lawsuit against Trump administration over high-speed rail funding cuts
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
The decision to drop the lawsuit signaled a pragmatic shift in California's approach to federal relations under Newsom, reinforcing his image as a capable leader managing complex challenges ahead of a potential presidential run.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
The Court’s decision to keep a Democratic‑friendly map in place reinforced the party’s dominance in the state, indirectly supporting Newsom’s national ambitions and nudging his price upward to 36%.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
The court’s decision secured a map that benefits Democratic candidates statewide, indirectly supporting Newsom’s party and modestly improving his market price.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
The court’s decision secured Democratic‑leaning districts for the 2026 elections, reinforcing the perception that California Democrats, including potential presidential contenders, have structural advantages, which helped stabilize Newsom’s price after earlier volatility.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom's veto of a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopausal care sparked public criticism from actress Halle Berry, negatively affecting his support among progressive and women's rights advocates, reflected in a price dip.
Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
Newsom's veto of a menopause-related healthcare bill led to public criticism from actress Halle Berry, potentially impacting his support among women voters and affecting his presidential nomination chances.
Kamala Harris drops out of California governor race
Kamala Harris dips to 2%4%
Harris announced she would not run for California governor, removing her from the race and causing her market price to fall sharply from 6% to 2% the following week.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.
Jon Ossoff endorses a rival candidate in California governor’s race
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Ossoff’s endorsement of another contender signaled shifting alliances, contributing to his own price falling from 50% to 4% that week.
Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause‑care bill
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%2%
Newsom’s October veto of AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause treatment, drew criticism from actress Halle Berry and women's‑health advocates, raising doubts about his appeal to female voters and causing his market price to dip before rebounding later in the month.
Kamala Harris’s poll support plunges to historic low
Kamala Harris plunges to 2%37%
A new poll showing Harris trailing significantly in national favorability triggered a sharp price drop for her, reflecting diminished expectations of a 2028 nomination.
Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause-related insurance coverage bill, drawing criticism
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom's veto of the menopause bill sparked public criticism, including from actress Halle Berry, which may have tempered some enthusiasm but did not significantly derail his nomination prospects.
Newsom’s State of the State speech attacks Trump and highlights California as a national model
Governor Newsom used his October State of the State address to position himself as a bulwark against the Trump administration, emphasizing his record on homelessness, climate, and health care, which boosted his perceived presidential viability.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget shortfall in final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
The announced deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, causing his price to dip from 37% to 36% as investors reassessed his electability.
Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%
Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, positioning California as a “bulwark” against Trump and highlighting his own record. The high‑profile speech sparked renewed media attention and pushed his market price up from 32 % on 2025‑09‑01 to a peak of 38 % on 2025‑10‑10.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
Newsom's veto of the menopause bill and Halle Berry's public criticism negatively affected his support among some voters, causing market fluctuations.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom used his final State of the State address to defend his record and position California as a national model against federal overreach, signaling his commitment to progressive policies and hinting at a 2028 presidential run. This bolstered his profile and market confidence in his candidacy.
Gov. Gavin Newsom touts California as a national blueprint in final State of the State address
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%13%
Newsom used his September State of the State speech to position California as a model for the nation and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, boosting his visibility and perceived electability, which pushed his market price from 19% to 32%.
Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%
The Supreme Court’s emergency order allowing California’s new, Democratic‑friendly congressional map was hailed by Newsom as a win against the Trump administration, reinforcing his image as a party protector and lifting his market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑16 to 36 % on 2025‑09‑18.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor
Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%
Harris’s decision to stay out of the race removed a major competitor, but the market interpreted it as a signal of limited support for establishment candidates, pushing her price down to 5%.
Newsom delivers State of the State address emphasizing California as a national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Governor Newsom used his final State of the State speech to highlight California’s policy successes and position himself as a bulwark against federal Republican policies, boosting his perceived presidential ambitions and lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address, touts California as a national model
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%14%
Newsom’s speech highlighted his record and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, raising his visibility and perceived electability, which coincided with a rise in his market price from 18% to 32% in early September.
California budget shortfall disclosed for Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
The revelation of a $2.9 billion deficit in Newsom’s last fiscal year highlighted fiscal challenges, prompting investors to view him as a more serious contender and pushing his price to 32%.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
The decision was seen as a win for Democratic leaders like Newsom, reinforcing his influence in the state and nudging his price upward to 32% while other candidates slipped.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million, setting Pennsylvania fundraising record
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
Shapiro’s massive fundraising haul highlighted his national profile but also underscored his focus on Pennsylvania, causing market participants to shift away from his 2028 presidential prospects.
Poll shows Newsom leading in early California governor primary
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
A September poll gave Newsom a clear lead among Democratic governor candidates, prompting a jump from 20% to 32% as voters saw him as the likely front‑runner.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
Mahan's entry into the governor race as a Newsom critic introduced new dynamics in California politics, potentially affecting Newsom's presidential prospects by highlighting intra-party challenges.
California budget shortfall of $2.9 billion reported for Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar deficit highlighted fiscal challenges for Newsom, prompting concerns about his electability and pulling his price down.
Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%
Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%1%
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a frequent critic of Newsom, announced his candidacy for California governor, emphasizing his moderate stance and record on homelessness and crime. His entry added competition and highlighted intra-party critiques of Newsom, influencing market perceptions of Newsom's standing.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire‑tax proposal, Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
Sanders’ high‑profile visit to champion a proposed wealth tax put Newsom in direct opposition, highlighting intra‑party conflict and slightly lowering his market price while also dragging down other candidates perceived as aligned with the establishment.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a critic of Newsom, enters California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 31%3%
Mahan's entry into the crowded California governor race added complexity to the Democratic field and highlighted internal party challenges, indirectly supporting Newsom's rising profile as he nears term limit and potential presidential run.
Gavin Newsom’s State of the State speech emphasizes California as a national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom used his August State of the State address to portray California as a blueprint for the nation and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, raising his national profile and lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
California launches free newborn diaper program
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
The rollout of a high‑visibility social‑policy program highlighted Newsom’s progressive credentials, reinforcing his appeal to Democratic voters and nudging his price upward from 35% to 38% over the next two weeks.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches California governor campaign
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Swalwell’s entry added another high‑profile contender, further fragmenting the field and contributing to the early drop in AOC’s price from 50% to 16% that week.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, enters California governor race
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
Mahan’s entry added another moderate Democrat, further fragmenting the field and prompting a reallocation of support that nudged Newsom’s price upward while pulling votes from other contenders.
Gavin Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run in State of the State address
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
Newsom used his August State of the State speech to signal a possible 2028 White House bid, raising his national visibility and boosting his nomination odds.
Federal raid outside California Gov. Newsom event amid political tensions
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%6%
A federal raid near a Newsom event highlighted ongoing political tensions and may have influenced perceptions of his resilience and prominence as a candidate.
Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
Sexual‑assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell were reported, prompting his swift withdrawal from the California governor’s race. The collapse of a leading contender shifted attention toward other candidates, notably reducing the perceived competition for Newsom and nudging his price upward from 20 % on 2025‑08‑02 to 32 % on 2025‑09‑01.
President Trump attacks Gov. Newsom’s dyslexia, calling him “stupid”
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Trump’s personal insults against Newsom drew national attention and polarized voters; the controversy briefly lifted Newsom’s profile but also prompted backlash that slowed his price rise, contributing to a dip from 36% to 35% the following week.
Gavin Newsom announces he will seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom publicly confirmed his intention to run for president, boosting his perceived viability and lifting his market price from 18% to 20% that week.
Eric Swalwell launches California governor bid on national TV
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Swalwell’s high‑profile announcement on Jimmy Kimmel Live! added a prominent contender to the race, drawing attention away from other Democrats and contributing to early price volatility for Newsom and his rivals.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, expanding crowded Democratic field
Swalwell’s entry added another high‑profile candidate, intensifying competition and contributing to a sharp drop in the market prices of other potential nominees, including Kamala Harris (down to 6%) and Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (down to 16%).
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%1%
Mahan's entry into the governor race and his criticism of Newsom highlighted challenges Newsom faces within his party, impacting Newsom's market perception.
Gavin Newsom touts California as a national blueprint in State of the State address
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioning California as a model for the nation raised his national profile and suggested a 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting fight against Trump
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Swalwell's entry into the California governor race as a Democrat and vocal Trump critic initially raised his profile, impacting market perceptions of Democratic contenders including Newsom and others in the crowded field.
Supreme Court upholds California’s new congressional map
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
The Court’s decision to keep the new map, which could flip several House seats, reinforced Newsom’s redistricting strategy and boosted confidence in his statewide leadership, nudging his price upward while other candidates saw little change.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
President Trump publicly mocked Gov. Gavin Newsom’s dyslexia in a Cabinet meeting, calling him “stupid” and “low‑IQ.” The attack raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted speculation that he could become the 2028 Democratic nominee, lifting the Newsom market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 20 % by 2025‑08‑02.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump and highlighting his desire to help Californians prosper. This announcement initially boosted his profile and affected perceptions of Gavin Newsom's political future, as Newsom is term-limited and a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget shortfall in final gubernatorial year
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Newsom's announcement of a significant budget deficit in California highlighted fiscal challenges during his last year as governor, impacting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability, which corresponded with a price increase in his nomination chances.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech highlighting California's progressive policies
Gavin Newsom rises to 21%3%
Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal chaos and Trump administration policies, boosting his national profile and increasing market confidence in his 2028 presidential nomination chances.
Gavin Newsom considered a potential 2028 presidential contender amid California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's early positioning as a 2028 presidential hopeful alongside his role as California governor increased market interest in his candidacy, reflected in rising prices.
Gavin Newsom signals 2028 presidential ambitions amid California governor term limit
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom, barred from seeking a third term as California governor, is widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, which increased market interest in his nomination prospects.
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