United Russia's commanding 95.7% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 20, 2026, stems from its entrenched ruling status aligned with President Putin, consistent opinion poll leads on party lists around 50-55%, and dominance in single-mandate districts that secured it 324 of 450 seats in 2021. Recent drivers include Putin's April 2 meeting with the Central Election Commission stressing interference-free processes, United Russia's primaries launching March 11 with screening for foreign agents and war veteran bonuses, and expanded remote e-voting in half of regions favoring incumbents. Structural barriers like opposition funding declines and candidate disqualifications limit challengers such as KPRF; realistic shifts would require economic crisis, mobilization unrest, or regional "Red Belt" surges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於統一俄羅斯（ER） 95.7%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF） 1.4%
公民平台（GP） 1.0%
新人物黨（NL） <1%
$894,734 交易量
$894,734 交易量
2026-09-30
統一俄羅斯（ER）
96%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF）
1%
公民平台（GP）
1%
新人物黨（NL）
1%
俄羅斯自由民主黨（LDPR）
1%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP）
1%
羅迪納
<1%
統一俄羅斯（ER） 95.7%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF） 1.4%
公民平台（GP） 1.0%
新人物黨（NL） <1%
$894,734 交易量
$894,734 交易量
2026-09-30
統一俄羅斯（ER）
$470,265 交易量
96%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF）
$77,272 交易量
1%
公民平台（GP）
$76,345 交易量
1%
新人物黨（NL）
$35,594 交易量
1%
俄羅斯自由民主黨（LDPR）
$31,501 交易量
1%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP）
$128,805 交易量
1%
羅迪納
$74,951 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95.7% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 20, 2026, stems from its entrenched ruling status aligned with President Putin, consistent opinion poll leads on party lists around 50-55%, and dominance in single-mandate districts that secured it 324 of 450 seats in 2021. Recent drivers include Putin's April 2 meeting with the Central Election Commission stressing interference-free processes, United Russia's primaries launching March 11 with screening for foreign agents and war veteran bonuses, and expanded remote e-voting in half of regions favoring incumbents. Structural barriers like opposition funding declines and candidate disqualifications limit challengers such as KPRF; realistic shifts would require economic crisis, mobilization unrest, or regional "Red Belt" surges.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
交易量
$894,734結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95.7% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 20, 2026, stems from its entrenched ruling status aligned with President Putin, consistent opinion poll leads on party lists around 50-55%, and dominance in single-mandate districts that secured it 324 of 450 seats in 2021. Recent drivers include Putin's April 2 meeting with the Central Election Commission stressing interference-free processes, United Russia's primaries launching March 11 with screening for foreign agents and war veteran bonuses, and expanded remote e-voting in half of regions favoring incumbents. Structural barriers like opposition funding declines and candidate disqualifications limit challengers such as KPRF; realistic shifts would require economic crisis, mobilization unrest, or regional "Red Belt" surges.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$894,734結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding 95.7% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 20, 2026, stems from its entrenched ruling status aligned with President Putin, consistent opinion poll leads on party lists around 50-55%, and dominance in single-mandate districts that secured it 324 of 450 seats in 2021. Recent drivers include Putin's April 2 meeting with the Central Election Commission stressing interference-free processes, United Russia's primaries launching March 11 with screening for foreign agents and war veteran bonuses, and expanded remote e-voting in half of regions favoring incumbents. Structural barriers like opposition funding declines and candidate disqualifications limit challengers such as KPRF; realistic shifts would require economic crisis, mobilization unrest, or regional "Red Belt" surges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions