Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) at 95.7% implied probability for third-most seats in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives following the March 8, 2026, parliamentary elections, driven by official quick counts from the Registraduría Nacional showing over 99% of mesas escrutadas. With Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) leading at around 20% vote share for first place and Centro Democrático (CD) second at 13.5%, PLC's consistent 11% national performance—outpacing Partido Conservador Colombiano (10.5%), Cambio Radical, and others—translates to superior seat allocation under proportional representation and the largest remainder method across departmental constituencies. This commanding position stems from effective regional strongholds and no major coalition dilutions. Potential shifts could arise from final certification delays, recounts in close curules, reallocation of 16 peace seats or indigenous quotas, or legal challenges by trailing parties like Conservadores, though no significant disputes have emerged in the past 24 days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於哥倫比亞自由黨（PLC） 95.6%
民主中心黨（CD） 2.6%
MIRA-CJL聯盟（MIRA-CJL） <1%
綠盟（AV） <1%
$3,788,663 交易量
$3,788,663 交易量
2026-03-08
哥倫比亞自由黨（PLC）
96%
民主中心黨（CD）
3%
MIRA-CJL聯盟（MIRA-CJL）
1%
綠盟（AV）
1%
哥倫比亞保守黨（保守黨）
<1%
烏黨（La U）
<1%
激進變革黨（CR）
<1%
哥倫比亞歷史協議 (PH)
<1%
哥倫比亞自由黨（PLC） 95.6%
民主中心黨（CD） 2.6%
MIRA-CJL聯盟（MIRA-CJL） <1%
綠盟（AV） <1%
$3,788,663 交易量
$3,788,663 交易量
2026-03-08
哥倫比亞自由黨（PLC）
$41,848 交易量
96%
民主中心黨（CD）
$32,952 交易量
3%
MIRA-CJL聯盟（MIRA-CJL）
$587,130 交易量
1%
綠盟（AV）
$611,129 交易量
1%
哥倫比亞保守黨（保守黨）
$13,901 交易量
<1%
烏黨（La U）
$1,093,285 交易量
<1%
激進變革黨（CR）
$1,400,377 交易量
<1%
哥倫比亞歷史協議 (PH)
$8,041 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) at 95.7% implied probability for third-most seats in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives following the March 8, 2026, parliamentary elections, driven by official quick counts from the Registraduría Nacional showing over 99% of mesas escrutadas. With Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) leading at around 20% vote share for first place and Centro Democrático (CD) second at 13.5%, PLC's consistent 11% national performance—outpacing Partido Conservador Colombiano (10.5%), Cambio Radical, and others—translates to superior seat allocation under proportional representation and the largest remainder method across departmental constituencies. This commanding position stems from effective regional strongholds and no major coalition dilutions. Potential shifts could arise from final certification delays, recounts in close curules, reallocation of 16 peace seats or indigenous quotas, or legal challenges by trailing parties like Conservadores, though no significant disputes have emerged in the past 24 days.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
市場開放時間： Mar 4, 2026, 3:53 PM ET
交易量
$3,788,663結束日期
2026-03-08市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) at 95.7% implied probability for third-most seats in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives following the March 8, 2026, parliamentary elections, driven by official quick counts from the Registraduría Nacional showing over 99% of mesas escrutadas. With Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) leading at around 20% vote share for first place and Centro Democrático (CD) second at 13.5%, PLC's consistent 11% national performance—outpacing Partido Conservador Colombiano (10.5%), Cambio Radical, and others—translates to superior seat allocation under proportional representation and the largest remainder method across departmental constituencies. This commanding position stems from effective regional strongholds and no major coalition dilutions. Potential shifts could arise from final certification delays, recounts in close curules, reallocation of 16 peace seats or indigenous quotas, or legal challenges by trailing parties like Conservadores, though no significant disputes have emerged in the past 24 days.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
交易量
$3,788,663結束日期
2026-03-08市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) at 95.7% implied probability for third-most seats in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives following the March 8, 2026, parliamentary elections, driven by official quick counts from the Registraduría Nacional showing over 99% of mesas escrutadas. With Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) leading at around 20% vote share for first place and Centro Democrático (CD) second at 13.5%, PLC's consistent 11% national performance—outpacing Partido Conservador Colombiano (10.5%), Cambio Radical, and others—translates to superior seat allocation under proportional representation and the largest remainder method across departmental constituencies. This commanding position stems from effective regional strongholds and no major coalition dilutions. Potential shifts could arise from final certification delays, recounts in close curules, reallocation of 16 peace seats or indigenous quotas, or legal challenges by trailing parties like Conservadores, though no significant disputes have emerged in the past 24 days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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